One of the criticisms of college football from those who don’t like the sport is the lack of a Cinderella storyline. The same people who don’t watch college basketball during the regular season and fall in love with small schools in March tell you that college football needs the same stories and that they’re tired of seeing the same teams in the college football playoffs .
These people don’t know that college football has Cinderella, but you find them during the regular season, not the postseason. The team that no one had high hopes for suddenly bounces back and wins nine games or maybe gets off to a 6-0 start, despite no one expecting them to win more than four games all season.
Sometimes these Cinderella stories stick. They become solid programs that regularly reach bowl games and even compete for conference titles. In the 2022 season there were many of these stories. More often than not, however, they revert to their pumpkin status. And now I’m here to burst some bubbles by listing five Power Five programs that had great success in 2022 but will likely take a step backwards in 2023.
Kentucky, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Pitt and Purdue made the list last year. After those five had a combined tally of 53-14 in 2021, it was 36-29 last year. None of the five teams could improve on their overall winning tally, although Purdue won the Big Ten West despite winning eight games instead of nine. All but Michigan State played at least one bowl game. Will the five teams I list this year suffer a similar fate? Probably yes.
Mike Elko’s debut with the Blue Devils couldn’t have gone much better. Duke finished the race with a 9-4 record (5-3 in ACC) and has been a solid fixture in Coastal Racing for most of the 2022 season, but that probably won’t happen again this year. The Blue Devils played seven one-point games last year, and while they weren’t particularly “lucky” in those games (they only went 3-4), it suggests they’re the teams , against whom they played were not as superior as their own The final record suggests.
Also, consider the schedule. While Duke should never take victories over teams like Miami and Virginia Tech lightly – even when they went 8-15 together – you know who wasn’t on Duke’s schedule last season? Clemson or Florida State. The two teams scored 21:6 together and are likely to be the best teams in the league again this year. Both are on Duke’s 2023 schedule. The Blue Devils open the season at home against Clemson and will play at Florida State in late October. Oh, and they’ll also host Notre Dame in September and four of their last six games will be away. If they win nine games again in 2023, Elko should be considered for Coach of the Year.
As much as it pains me to admit it, I have a hard time believing Illinois will be as good as the team were last year. The Illini finished the year 8-5 but started the year 7-1 with division wins over Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota before losing four of their last five. The only win after November 1 came against a Northwestern team, who finished 1-11. Yes, Illinois held firm against Michigan in Ann Arbor and might have won the game without some questionable statements from the officials, but that wasn’t the case.
The 2023 season could be tougher. Illinois has lost many crucial parts on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters is now the head coach at Purdue, and almost all of the starting secondary is in the NFL. The good news is that the Illini should still have one of the best defensive lines in the Big Ten, if not the country, but that secondary line played a major role in forcing the turnovers that helped Illinois finish fifth nationally place in terms of sales margin (+60) ).
The other concern is the crime. Illinois won eight games last season despite finishing in the bottom half of the Power Five in many key statistical categories, and its workhorse running back Chase Brown is also in the NFL. When defense takes a little step backwards (which isn’t crazy considering last year’s losses and incredible performance) and offense doesn’t make up for it, it makes it harder for that team to win that many games. The good news for any Illini fan reading this is that the days of three-win seasons under coach Bret Bielema are probably behind you. But another eight-win season in 2023? I’m not sure.
There are some football reasons to believe Mississippi State won’t win nine games and finish in the top 20 again in 2023, but the number one reason is one that the team has no control over. Mike Leach’s death was a devastating blow to the sport and the Mississippi State program. Leach stamped his identity on the program, and the results came with it. The Bulldogs increased their wins in Leach’s second and third seasons, but now they have to start over with Zach Arnett becoming the first head coach to introduce a new style of play on offense.
The schedule won’t do the Bulldogs much favor either. While they don’t have to play Georgia this season and play Alabama and LSU at home, they will be traveling for South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn and Texas A&M. Sometimes it’s better to play the toughest games away from home as you probably won’t win them anywhere. When you take your “coin toss” games to the streets, they are far less of a coin toss in your favor.
Purdue
That’s right, Purdue, I’ve got you back here for the second year in a row. Admittedly, Purdue did better than I expected last season, even if the team suffered a record setback. I mean, it won the Big Ten West. In fact, while the team’s win-loss record was still solid, the underlying numbers suggest the Boilermakers took a step back last season.
For example, despite an 8-6 record, Purdue conceded more points than they scored last year. It was one of only two teams in the country to win at least eight games last season and finish on a negative points difference. The other was Coastal Carolina, who won 9-4 despite losing 414-378 points.
Last season, Purdue went 5-2 by a point in games. The eight wins came at an average of 13.13 points per game. The six losses amounted to -19.33 points per game. The 63-7 loss to LSU in the Citrus Bowl skews that badly, but after two narrow losses to Penn State and Syracuse in September, all of Purdue’s last four losses have been at least two points. This is usually not a good sign. Factoring in a new coaching staff, major departures, and a schedule that includes Ohio State and Michigan, there’s a reason sportsbooks put Purdue’s winning tally at five.
Am I exaggerating when I say that the team that amassed 6.5 wins in preseason last season but ended up winning the national title 13-2 will inevitably take a step backwards this year? It would be almost impossible that the Horned Frogs didn’t have a worse season in 2023. Still, the drop could be more significant than many realize. Your total winnings in sports betting at the start of the season is only 7.5.
Why? First of all, TCU lost a lot of production from last year’s team. ESPN.com’s Bill Connelly has a recurring production metric that he releases annually, and TCU is ranked 118th nationally. The Frogs also lost offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to Clemson, although the fact that Sonny Dykes is still at Fort Worth and the signing of Kendall Briles makes me think this team will still score points.
But as good as the Frogs were last year, we can’t help but feel lucky. Other than Troy, no team in the country has had as many one-point wins as TCU’s six, and the Frogs went 6-1 in those games. Nine of their 13 wins have come by 10 points or fewer. Their only wins by at least three points came against Tarleton State, Oklahoma and Iowa State. Tarleton State was the only one of those three to end last season with a winning tally.