Almost two years since the start of one of the bloodiest wars in recent years, two battles are taking shape and promise to determine the course of Russia’s invasion in 2024
Accusations that the Russian invasion has descended into a bloody stalemate are mounting. The Ukrainian counteroffensive ended inconclusively and the Russian capture of Bakhmut left such a trail of blood that there was an attempted coup by the mercenaries who led the offensive. But in the snow falling on the Ukrainian plains, two battles continue to take shape and shape the outcome of the next year of fighting.
“Putin gave an explicit order to conquer Donbass by the end of the year, and Avdiivka is the first step towards that goal.” But in just over a month they have already lost more than 15,000 men. “Avdiivka risks becoming a new Bakhmut for Russia,” says Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira.
A few days after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel, Russia launched a massive surprise attack against this small town on the outskirts of Donetsk. To the surprise of the Ukrainian army leadership, this was not an attack like so many others that happen on the front line every day. The Russian military had managed to bypass all the most modern surveillance means from satellites to drones and concentrated a large amount of armored vehicles and artillery ammunition in the region.
But the results were not as expected. Within days, thousands of Russian soldiers lost their lives trying to cross the dense minefields surrounding the city’s outskirts. The columns of armored vehicles that had escaped the mines and antitank weapons faced a difficult obstacle in the sky: an army of drones. In the few cases where the Russian military managed to overcome all of these barriers, it encountered fortified positions that were very difficult to capture. The result, according to Kiev, caused Russian casualties to rise from 600 per day to a thousand dead per day.
Ukrainian soldier fires antitank weapon from top of trench in Avdiivka (AP Photo)
“The main reason for these losses is the fact that Ukrainian defense positions in this region have been prepared since 2014. They are wellorganized positions and the troops there are trained and combat capable,” explains Isidro de Morais Pereira, adding that this is exactly the same reason why Ukraine “was not able to to advance south.”
After the failure of the first days, everything indicated that Russia was preparing to withdraw and reorganize its forces. But the Russian leadership had other plans: it increased the intensity of the attacks and stationed even more assets in the region. The redoubled Russian effort had some success in the northern region, advancing just over two miles north of the city. However, fighting continues on three fronts in the fields that host the city.
Here, Russia will do everything in its power to change the course of the war in the coming months. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called this Russian offensive a “worrying reminder” that Putin is ready to conquer Ukraine at any cost and does not rule out the possibility of “tactical successes” at the expense of Ukraine’s life of “thousands” in the future.
In contrast to Bakhmut, Avdiivka is of strategic importance for Russia. This Ukrainian bastion is located on the outskirts of the city of Donetsk, just 24 kilometers from the center of the capital Donbass. From this region, Ukrainian troops can attack ammunition depots and groups of Russian soldiers in the city. In addition, the capture of this city would open the gates of Donbass to Russia, as this is one of the largest cities in the Ukrainiancontrolled Donetsk province.
“The center of this war is Avdiivka. It is on the outskirts of Donetsk and the goal is to keep Donetsk away from Ukrainian artillery fire. The volume of forces from one side to the other is tens of thousands. Russia is trying to end the blockade, but it is not easy. “The Russians are waging a war of attrition,” explains Major General Agostinho Costa.
Even after two years of fierce fighting, the Ukrainian military themselves say the intensity of this offensive is almost unprecedented. The leader of the Avdiivka military region, Vitalii Barabash, even admits that he has never seen anything like this in almost a decade of fighting. The number of vehicles, aircraft, guns and soldiers is unprecedented in a region that has not been at peace since 2014.
Before the war, about 32,000 people lived in this city. Of more than 1,600, only a few remain. Many of the old Soviet buildings have been completely decimated and the last road connecting Avdiivka with Ukrainian territory remains at risk. A scenario that brings back the memory of Bakhmut’s asphyxiation in Ukraine. “Ukraine’s room for maneuver is becoming somewhat smaller and the Russians have an army of more than a million men,” recalls Agostinho Costa.
Ukrainian soldiers fight to retake Russianoccupied territory (AP Photo) A surprise and a star
At the same time, Ukraine does not give up its goal of regaining its territory occupied by Russia, in particular Crimea. Given the limited success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military leadership has turned its attention to the Dniprus River, where it is trying to open a new battle front that will threaten Russia’s southern front. And with some success on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, in Krynky.
There, Ukraine managed one of the most difficult military maneuvers: landing soldiers in enemyoccupied areas. The military calls it a bridgehead and that is exactly what the Ukrainian Marines have bravely done in recent weeks, increasing pressure on the Russian flank in the Kherson region. This maneuver could force Moscow to withdraw soldiers from other areas of the front to try to stop Ukraine’s advance.
“Ukraine has a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper that is eight kilometers long. They are betting on opening a new front, forcing the enemy to relocate its reserves and creating a problem for Russia,” emphasizes Isidro de Morais Pereira.
The creation of this new battle front was only possible thanks to the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in the summer. To stop the Kiev forces’ attack, Russia placed some of its best and most trained units on the Zaporizhzhia axis, where Ukraine’s main offensive took place. On the banks of the Dnieper, where the likelihood of an attack was lower, he deployed mobilized soldiers with little training and inferior equipment. But this decision could cost Moscow dearly.
Ukraine began the operation several months before the first landings. The Ukrainian military leadership has stationed radio jammers in the area to prevent the use of Russian drones within a radius of almost 20 kilometers. At the same time, thousands of Britishtrained marines prepared for a series of smaller landings to test Russian defenses. The attack surprised the mobilized Russian troops and allowed Ukraine to advance further than expected.
“Initially things didn’t go well for Russia, which was a surprise. In fact, it was a very good maneuver on the part of Ukraine, which gradually moved its forces to the other side of the Dnieper. “The Russians had thirdline troops there and considered the landing an incident,” emphasizes Major General Agostinho Costa, who also emphasizes that the Ukrainians already have a significant number of special forces on this side of the river.
The Ukrainian plan is to “keep” this captured piece of land to use it as a base for a new offensive with air support from F16s next spring. Moscow is aware that the situation is getting worse every day. Currently, Ukraine has already transported armored cars to the other side of the Dnieper, which are helping the Ukrainian marines.
A group of Ukrainian marines sail from the banks of the Dnipro River on the front line near Kherson, Ukraine (Alex Babenko/AP)
This scenario is worrying for Russia and the top leadership responded by giving command of the Russian military group to “one of its stars,” Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, the commander of the paratroopers. This is one of the generals with the best reputation in the Russian army and in whom General Valery Gerasimov pins his hopes to change the course of events. “They gave him command of this front because they know that this front represents a great vulnerability,” emphasizes the military expert.
“These two battles will shape the next few months of the war. Our attention must be focused on these two places. In Avdiivka the battle will last at least two more months. In Krynky we have to see if this general is so brilliant. “The truth is that Russia has not yet found a solution,” the major general states.