Rumors have been circulating in the media and on social networks for a few days: a “lost” asteroid will hit Earth on October 5th. What is it really and should we prepare for the worst?
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It's called 2007 FT3 and as the name suggests, this asteroid was first observed in 2007. In fact, for the first and only time. Hence the term “lost” that is associated with it today. However, this was enough for astronomers to estimate its size. About 314 meters (almost as high as the Eiffel Tower). And to calculate its orbit. Since then, it has been on the list of asteroids likely to travel with Earth. Researchers at NASA's Cneos (Center for Near Earth Object Studies) have even identified several dozen potential impact points. Including the one that many media outlets have been talking about in the last few days. That of October 5, 2024.
However, there is no real reason to panic. NASA itself confirms this. No known asteroid larger than 140 meters – a size at which damage becomes significant – has a significant chance of hitting Earth in the next 100 years. But why then does the Center for Near Earth Object Studies announce a “point of potential impact”?
The asteroid impact would be devastating
You should know that astronomers speak of a “potential impact point” when an object approaches within 30 million kilometers of Earth's orbit. For comparison: our moon is only about 385,000 kilometers away from us. And coming back to 2007 FT3, a possible impact point between this asteroid and our planet's orbit was already planned for October 2013 and October 2019, without us feeling the effects.
However, we would like to point out that scientists estimate that a collision between Earth and an asteroid with the size and mass – about 54 million tons – of 2007 FT3 would release energy equivalent to 2.6 billion tons of TNT. That's almost as if all the atomic bombs in the world were detonated in the same place.
Increased risk of being struck by lightning
Going back to NASA's estimated collision risk, it is on the order of one in 11 million for October 5, 2024. A risk of the same magnitude as that estimated for 2019. And one more point: The possible impacts have been identified for March 3, 2030. This time there is a one in a million chance of collision. Slightly more than the estimated risk of an impact in 2013. However, this remains small compared to, for example, the risk of being struck by lightning, which is on the order of 1 in 135,000. Even greater compared to the risk of another object called 29075 (1950). DA) collides with the Earth. An impact between this asteroid and our planet would release about 75 billion tons of TNT. The object has been tracked for more than 50 years and the chance of a collision actually occurring is on the order of one in 34,500. However, this shouldn't happen until 2880!
That gives us time to see it coming. And if necessary, prepare a mission to try to deviate from their trajectory. As for 2007 FT3, its discovery in the sky would allow astronomers to record new data that would help clarify its trajectory in a little more detail. And perhaps to remove it from the list of asteroids threatening our planet and humanity.