2023 ends on a cliffhanger for Justin Trudeau's Liberals, whose love rating is at its lowest point since 2015. When the pandemic is behind us, it is clear that the economy is driving up prices while simultaneously dragging the government down. A stabilization or even a turnaround could give the liberals a breath of fresh air. They also have to juggle a commission of inquiry into interference, negotiate drug insurance and deal with a housing crisis linked to a very ambitious immigration policy.
Poilievre, not just a flash in the pan
In many ways, 2023 was the year of Pierre Poilievre. The Conservative leader used the summer to restore his image by taking off his glasses and rolling up his sleeves, both literally and figuratively. “He’s the only one who took his barbecue tour seriously. He didn’t take a vacation and worked hard,” says political scientist Geneviève Tellier from the University of Ottawa. “Will the others start working hard?” This is something to think about, because for the first time since Justin Trudeau took office in 2015, the Conservatives have a lead that is both sizable and durable. The question for 2024 is whether they will be able to maintain the support that could, in all likelihood, give them the key to a majority mandate.
Inflation…pays off
Pierre Poilievre's fifteen-to-twenty point lead in the polls cannot be explained solely by his transformation: inflation, cost of living and interest rates are key phenomena in Canadians' disillusionment with Justin Trudeau. A reversal or slowing of these trends is far from unlikely, but could offer little hope for a recovery. “It could help the government if inflation was brought under control and we were no longer forced to increase the interest rate. But if things go less well and things continue as before, that will be an advantage for Poilievre,” assures Ms. Tellier.
Drug insurance, a key player
When it comes to speculation about the next election, the topic of “Universal Pharmacare” is on everyone’s lips. This expensive program, which Jagmeet Singh is passionate about, is a key part of the agreement between the New Democrats and the Liberals. Although negotiations continue behind the scenes, Ottawa's fiscal space is melting like snow in the sun. Will the NDP hold its own or bring down the government before 2025? “I have the impression that many decisions are made based on the surveys,” says the political scientist.
Hogue Commission on Foreign Interference
The year 2024 begins with a bang with a commission of inquiry of the utmost importance: the Hogue Commission, named after Judge Marie-Josée Hogue, which will investigate foreign interference in Canada, a case that had monopolized the scene government in the spring. “We don’t know Judge Hogue. We don’t really know where she is and what she wants to do,” says Geneviève Tellier. After recently denying Conservatives the opportunity to ask witnesses questions, “Are we going to blame the government?” [pour l’ingérence] and return to last year’s psychodrama?” The commission’s final report must be published before December 31, 2024.
Immigration: a (too?) ambitious goal
A “hot potato” that few dare to touch, and yet immigration will certainly be the focus of attention, emphasizes the political scientist. The new immigration minister, Marc Miller, announced that he would stick to the target of 500,000 new permanent residents per year from 2025. “He's still ambitious, and a lot of people tell him that he's maybe a little too ambitious,” says Ms. Tellier. With significant “fiscal pressures,” the housing crisis and demands for hundreds of millions in Quebec, could the minister change his mind? “Him [Miller] He does not want to. But maybe given the evidence and the number of people saying it doesn't work, he'll lower the rate at some point.”