“We Europeans today, and we are the ones who will pay the most for this crisis.” The economist Pietro Paganini, founder of the think tank Competere, explains in this interview with ilGiornale.it what difficulties Western liberal democracies will face in the near future will.
Will sanctions hurt Russia or the West more?
“The sanctions risk doing a lot of damage to Russia, but without achieving the results that NATO, Europe and the United States have set out to achieve. They can therefore have a very devastating boomerang effect on our economy, because eventually many of them We have realized that the rest of the world is no longer following the will of the smallest part of the world, that is, the West, considering that countries like Turkey (which is in NATO) or India, not only do they not follow the sanctions, but they also do not condemn Russia for doing business with Moscow, from which they get so many raw materials and cannot do without. This also applies to Israel, many countries in Africa and Asia and for the entire Middle East. the United States and Europe will have to grapple with this new scenario.”
Is this the end of globalization?
“No, if it’s the beginning of globalization. In fact, one could not believe that globalization was just the export of the western model. It is the victory of diversity, for which there are liberal democracies in the world, but also dictatorships and system politicians, which we have to face in order to make it clear that liberal democracy is the best way to prosperity. It is just the beginning of a series of challenges that globalization brings with it. May Europe turn back, retreating from globalization towards a selfsufficient system is madness, especially when we talk about energy. It is unthinkable to believe that we can achieve energy autonomy in a short time with renewable energies.
Is the green revolution that Greta is committed to now being questioned?
“An energy plan needs to have a unified vision that covers everything: gas, wheat and renewable energy. Every year, in parallel with the budget law, we must have a strategic plan for raw materials and make decisions based on three categories. The first is the economic one: selection of suitable raw materials The second geopolitics, that is to say dynamic and resilient supply chains that allow us to switch from one supply chain to another when there are difficulties with a country Finally, we need a sustainable supply Renewable energies are part of this plan, but today we risk moving from Russian to Chinese dependence, paying more for solar panels and wind turbines than for gas coming from Russia, and it is quite difficult to set up an Italian subsidiary for these instruments Disposal is also a big problem. In addition, renewable energies do not always cover all of our energy needs and Iò, at the moment we cannot give up Russian gas “.
How profitable is it for China to support Russia?
“China has a valid ally in Russia, which is also a weapon against NATO, the United States and Europe. The latter is politically and economically very weak, also thanks to this conflict. Consequently, China’s plan is strengthened, that is, weakened, to make Europe a market where you can squeeze and sell your products. In my opinion, China has no interest in imperializing Russia or hegemonizing the politics of individual countries.
Will China become the world’s first power, or will America still play a central role?
“Assuming that liberal democracies are in the minority, we need to know that Europe’s wellbeing depends on the commodities we buy from others, but other countries are no longer economically dependent on us.”
Will the yuan replace the dollar in the future?
“Right now, the dollar is still the most important currency. It has a small competitor, the euro, but if India and Saudi Arabia are willing to think with the yuan, it means that sooner or later there will be a part of the world that will trust the Chinese currency more. And that’s why a different foreign policy is needed, especially if you’re not a producer of raw materials. We Europeans, on the other hand, have naively cared about the environment and the planet, leaving the role of world policeman to the United States. Instead, like Israel, we should have taken care of defending our democracies. The truth is that while we Europeans were naive, the Americans created a degree of independence energetically and today they can hold their own almost on their own”.