The North Atlantic is currently experiencing record high temperatures. This could lead to a summer with even more heat and heavy rain in this country.
Since satellite measurements began 40 years ago, the North Atlantic has never been as warm at this time of year as it is now. According to the researchers, this could result in a hot summer and heavy rainfall for Central Europe. In mid-June, the oceanic region was about one degree warmer than the average for the comparative period from 1982 to 2011, according to data from the US climate agency NOAA.
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The sea surface temperature analyzed from the equator to the southern tip of Greenland is currently about 0.5 degrees above the previous record for this time. According to measurements, the North Atlantic and most of the world’s oceans have recorded record temperatures since March.
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Greenhouse gases warm the oceans
The main reason: “The world’s oceans have absorbed 90% of the heat generated by man-made greenhouse gases,” says Mojib Latif of the Geomar Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel. As a result, they have become significantly warmer at depths of up to 2,000 meters, and even deeper in some areas – with consequences not just for ecosystems. Furthermore, they would have absorbed a quarter of the carbon dioxide produced by man.
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The North Atlantic currently has particularly high temperatures, averaging nearly 23 degrees Celsius. The subtropical area of the North Atlantic, in particular, has warmed considerably since April. A persistent area of low pressure led to a flow of warmer air from the southwest and less cold air from the northeast into the subtropical North Atlantic, says Helge Gössling, a climate physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven. In addition, wind currents in the region have weakened, which also increases the surface temperature.
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The air currents go crazy
At the same time, according to Latif, there is also an anomaly in air currents in the northern North Atlantic that is contributing to warming. “This could be a random fluctuation in atmospheric flow, which is usually very variable,” says Latif. “Usually we have westerly winds, but now they come from the south and east and deliver warm air north of the North Atlantic,” adds Gössling. The reasons are not clear. “In general, air currents over the world’s oceans are subject to large random fluctuations, which, however, increase global warming and can lead to particularly high temperatures,” says Gössling. “Climate change therefore increases the likelihood of extreme weather.”
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“With up to five degrees above normal, the water temperature on the west and south coasts of France has just warmed up particularly strongly,” continues Gössling. Global warm water temperatures in the North Atlantic could lead to a warmer summer in Central Europe through August. Warm air also absorbs more water, which westerly and southerly winds can carry towards Europe. This, in turn, encourages heavy rainfall.
Is the Sahara’s lack of dust to blame?
Some researchers are attributing the emerging El Niño weather phenomenon to warming of the North Atlantic. “I don’t think it has anything to do with it because it’s just starting now,” Latif said. According to Gössling, the absence of dust from the Sahara over the Atlantic could contribute to a certain extent to the warming of the North Atlantic, but this has not yet been clearly proven. The fine granules reflect sunlight and therefore generally have a cooling effect. He also finds speculative the thesis that the warming is due to a prescribed reduction in sulfur emissions from ships.
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According to Latif, there are different influences on the number and strength of hurricanes: “Hurricanes should become more frequent because of warm surface water in the subtropical North Atlantic.” On the other hand, El Niño changes the wind profile at altitude, which reduces its number. “In short, there can be a completely normal hurricane season,” says Latif. He doesn’t want to make short-term weather forecasts. “The weather is so chaotic that I don’t want to make a specific prediction. But as it gets warmer, extreme weather events generally become more intense.”
Navigation count 20 minutes, ff Time18.06.2023, 21:51| Act: 06/18/2023, 9:51 pm