With less than two weeks until the Major League Baseball market close, it’s fair to say that all eyes are on the Los Angeles Angels and Two-Way star Shohei Ohtani. The Angels, who have slipped further out of playoff contention since losing star outfielder Mike Trout to injury, will soon have to decide whether to trade in Ohtani, an upcoming free agent who will likely exit the franchise one way or another in the coming months and head to greener pastures.
The math seems simple: do the angels prefer to hold Ohtani, run as much as possible, and then hope that indolence proves an irresistible force? Or do they come to the sober assessment that taking the best trade package is better for the franchise than ending up with draft pick compensation? Owner Arte Moreno has reportedly canceled previous trade talks as he didn’t want to be known for having traded with the world’s top player.
As Moreno and the angels weigh their options, it’s important to remember the strength of Ohtani’s attraction. His looming availability, be it this summer or this winter, has almost certainly influenced how teams behave during the final season break and is guaranteed to impact how applicants will approach the deadline as well. To get an idea of the impact a single player can have on the rest of the league, consider these three potential consequences of Ohtani’s availability.
1. Potential sellers not selling?
Ohtani has consistently expressed his desire to win a World Series title. That claim is the main reason it has become fashionable to bet against the Angels keeping one’s services. Consider that they failed to make the postseason despite paying him well below his market value. So how will they build around him when he becomes the highest paid player in the sport?
So it’s an unexpected and perhaps unfortunate turn of events that several of his alleged future suitors are having a disappointing season. In fact, if the postseason started tomorrow, the New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres would all be on the sidelines. (The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants probably wouldn’t fret over such a result, mind you.)
The problem for the underperforming teams — particularly the Mets and the Padres — is that they may feel they are limited in how much they can sell in that deadline. After all, they wouldn’t want to give Ohtani the impression that they weren’t serious and/or in a position to compete next season by trading off some of their top veterans – not when it might mean losing a real chance of bringing him in this winter.
2. Could Trout move next?
If Ohtani leaves, whether by deadline or this winter, the Angels will have another tough question to ask: Is it time to leave Mike Trout?
The Angels would likely answer “no,” in part because Moreno doesn’t want to become the owner who lost Ohtani and Trout in a matter of months — not to mention the obvious negative impact a deal would have on the brand and fanbase. It’s an interesting thought experiment, though.
Because as incredible as Trout has been throughout his career, there’s reason to wonder just what’s in store for him. He is approaching his 32nd birthday; owes him nearly $250 million more after this season; and he tends to miss large chunks of the game plan – he last appeared in more than 140 games in 2018 (although he did play in 53 out of 60 games in 2020).
There are also some slight performance concerns, as absurd as that may sound given Trout’s consistently brilliant nature. His 134 OPS+ this year would represent the lowest of his entire career season, and his swing-and-miss tendencies have deteriorated in recent seasons, rising to about 30% in the last two seasons (the league average is about 25%).
If you have a certain mindset, you might be looking at the developments above — plus the Angels’ competition and payrolls without Ohtani — and wondering if it’s worth looking for a fallback. We’re very skeptical that the Angels will do this (even a “diminished” Trout – if you can still call it that at this point – has remained more productive than all but 15 of its kind), and that’s totally fine. In our opinion, it’s better for the game if teams aren’t always managed in a brutally efficient manner, especially when it comes to living legends like Trout.
3. Are award races affected?
Obviously, that subtitle only applies if Ohtani moves to a National League team, but there’s a chance both races for the Most Valuable Player award will be altered if he makes the switch in time.
While Ohtani can certainly be identified as the current top contender for the AL MVP award (Caesar’s Sportsbook lists him as a -950 favorite), that will not be the case if he changes leagues. Voters have historically docked players who were transferred to the other league, regardless of how well they performed during their time in the relevant league.
For reference, consider that as a member of the Oakland Athletics in 1997, Mark McGwire hit 34 home runs and had a 163 OPS+ in 105 games. He was then traded to the St. Louis Cardinals, with whom he hit 24 home runs in 51 contests. Not only was McGwire eliminated from the AL MVP poll, he also finished a meager 16th place in the NL MVP poll. It’s a tough break.
Alternatively, CC Sabathia was transferred from AL to NL in 2008. In 17 appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers, he pitched so well that he finished fifth in the Cy Young pick and sixth in the NL MVP pick. On the AL side of the ledger, he received no consideration.
We feel compelled to point out that there is one data point that suggests Ohtani could lasso a piece of NL hardware. In 1984, Rick Sutcliffe was traded mid-season from the AL’s Cleveland franchise to the NL’s Chicago Cubs. He ended up winning the Cy Young Award for 20 fantastic starts.
It seems highly unlikely that Ohtani could pull off a similar run to win the NL MVP award given how brilliantly Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts and other NL members have played all season. But we assume Ohtani has made a habit of asserting himself against the odds. What’s another?