Here are three questions on our mind after the Bills clinched another AFC East title with a win in Chicago:
Now that the Bills have taken care of business in Chicago, lay out what’s at stake in Cincinnati next Monday?
It’s like a playoff game in Cincinnati, except the loser’s season isn’t over yet. Depending on the outcome, there will be a big jump in AFC title odds.
A win over the Bengals makes the Bills the overwhelming favorite to become the No. 1 seed for the AFC playoffs. The Bills would still likely have to beat New England at home in the regular season finale. Earn the No. 1 and the Bills “only” need to win two games at home to claim the AFC crown.
When the Bills lose to Cincinnati, they stare at the prospect of a brutally tough road to the Super Bowl. There’s a fair chance they’ll have to beat Miami again at home in the wild card round, then hit the streets and win in Cincinnati and Kansas City. Obviously there are other possible scenarios besides a road between dolphins, Bengalis and chiefs. But this is a three-game Bataan Death March that the Bills would like to avoid.
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Of course, the #1 seed is a guarantee of nothing. Cincinnati beat No. 1 seed Tennessee last year and then went to Kansas City to beat the Chiefs in the AFC Finals. Still, the alternative to No. 1 this year isn’t pleasant given the power teams in the conference.
After all the talk about running defense struggles against Miami, what was going right against the Bears?
The past two weeks have been almost two opposing challenges for the Bills’ defense. Against Miami, the top priority is not getting killed on long passing plays by the fastest wide receiver duo in football. They need more people stopping the pass than stopping the run against Miami.
Against Chicago, the priority was to contain the league’s most dynamic running quarterback while worrying a lot less about his passing. The Bears went into play 32nd in the league in passing yards.
Credit the defenders of the Bills with discipline. Defensive ends held Fields in the bag with containment pass rushes. They didn’t come up too far to give him wide open scramble lanes of tackle.
“I think we had to get a feel for what they were trying to do to us early on,” said safety Jordan Poyer. “We probably expected a little more zone read, quarterback keeper, quarterback power runs. But they kept coming back for some of the same runs and after that first ride we settled down. We were able to make some plays in the run game and force them into some situations they didn’t want to be in. … I think you saw some of the runs he had last week and the weeks before. It was able to contain him and force him to run sideways because he is an electric runner if he can go downhill.”
Can the Bills carry the rapid success to Cincinnati and the playoffs?
The Bills are a passing offense and they will be at their best when they can count on the pass. But who knows what the weather will be like in January? The wind chill of 12 in Chicago was not conducive to passing. Let’s not overreact to the fact that Josh Allen only completed 15 passes and Stefon Diggs only caught two. Gabe Davis lost a fumble. It’s surprising that both teams haven’t lost more fumble.
The overwhelming success can be built upon. James Cook’s speed is something opposing defenses must respect and prepare to contain. And give the Bills credit for gaining 254 yards on the floor without one of their top two offensive lineman, center Mitch Morse.
Last week, the NFC’s top team, Philadelphia, had 20 first downs, 421 yards and 25 points over the Bears. The Bills had 20 first downs, 426 yards and 35 points. A win is a win.
Still, the Bears’ defense is weak, ranked 27 vs. Run.
Cincinnati’s defense went into eighth place this week against the run.
Some promising news for the Bills offense: The long-term weather forecast for Cincinnati next Monday calls for 59 degrees and rain.
[BN] Daily lightning updates
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