The Tigers and right-handers Kenta Maeda have agreed to a two-year deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X Link). ESPN’s Jeff Passan Reports that Maeda will earn $24 million in guaranteed money, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes that the deal will become official on Monday once Maeda passes the physical. Maeda is represented by Boras Corporation.
Earlier this week, reports linking Maeda and the Tigers surfaced, although the Twins (Maeda’s former team) continued to show interest. Minnesota will now have to deal with Maeda as an opponent at a division rival, as Maeda will join the third team of his major league career at the start of his age-36 season.
With Eduardo Rodríguez Maeda may leave Detroit as a free agent and take on the role of veteran player within a Tigers rotation that is still quite young and inexperienced overall. However, most of the Tigers’ young players also suffered injuries during the club’s nightmarish 2022 season Tarik Skubal And Matt Manning When he’s healthy, he can serve well, and Reese Olson emerged as a legitimate rotation candidate. At the moment, Maeda appears to be the No. 2 guy on the team behind Skubal, along with Manning, Olson and Casey Mize (expected to return after missing 2023 due to Tommy John surgery).
This offseason marked the end of the incentive-heavy, eight-year, $25 million contract Maeda signed with the Dodgers in January 2016, when Maeda first came to the majors from Nippon Professional Baseball. Maeda’s earning potential was somewhat limited at the time due to some concerns about his elbow, although he did not have any major arm injury problems for four years in Los Angeles before the Dodgers traded him to the Twins during the 2019–20 offseason. Maeda responded with a standout performance in the pandemic-shortened campaign, posting a 2.70 ERA in 66 2/3 innings and finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting.
With a more modest ERA of 4.66 in 106 1/3 frames in 2021, the injury problem finally subsided as Maeda underwent Tommy John internal brace surgery. In theory, using the brace could have shortened Maeda’s time on the injured list, but he ended up missing the entire 2022 season. His comeback year in 2023 was also shortened by almost two months due to a triceps strain, but the numbers were pretty solid overall, when Maeda took the hill.
Maeda posted a 4.23 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate over 104 1/3 innings for Minnesota. Both the walk and strikeout rates were well above average, and Maeda was not a high-speed pitcher even before the surgery, so his 90.9 mph average was just below his career norm. Maeda allowed a lot of hard contact last year, which was something of a red flag considering he was very good at inducing soft contact in the seasons before his brace surgery, and at elite level on occasion.
Due to hard contact numbers, Maeda’s age and injury history, it was expected that the market for Maeda this winter could be limited to a two-year contract (or two years with an option). MLBTR ranked Maeda at No. 25 on our list of the top 50 free agents of the offseason, projecting a two-year, $36 million deal for the right-hander. The actual dollar value will be lower than our projection, perhaps indicating that teams had concerns about Maeda’s ability to stay healthy. Speculatively, it could also be that Maeda wanted to get a deal done sooner rather than later, perhaps in a nod to the strong interest the Tigers showed so early in the winter.
There’s no doubt that the right-hander has a high ceiling when healthy, making the signing a pretty good move for Scott Harris, the Tigers’ president of baseball operations. After spending most of his first year in the job in the evaluation phase, Harris has begun to make some modest but notable expenditures on veteran talent, both in signing Maeda and trading Maeda Mark Canha earlier this month. Adding in the Maeda deal puts Detroit’s projected payroll (per Roster Resource) at just $85.26 million, although Harris has spoken of financial caution in the past and it’s not yet clear how much the Tigers are willing to pay to spend this winter.
At least the Tigers have the flexibility to perhaps explore a bigger move should an opportunity arise, and Maeda’s signing may open such a door in a unique way. Petzold wrote this week that the Tigers were looking at Maeda both for the pitcher’s own value and for “establishment in the Japanese pitching market.” This is particularly interesting in the context of Detroit’s interest in Yoshinobu Yamamotoand if the Harris and Tigers owners were willing to break the bank on one player, perhaps it would be for this circumstance of a 25-year-old Japanese star who may still have up to a decade of first-class baseball ahead of him.
Shota Imanaga is another prominent name coming from NPB to the majors this winter, although Imanaga is 30 years old and his ceiling isn’t considered as high as Yamamoto’s. It’s also possible that the Tigers don’t have enough experienced pitchers from the major league free agent market, as the name suggests Seth Lugo And Luis Severino are also reportedly on Detroit’s radar as guns become available with shorter terms and comparatively cheaper contracts.
One could have argued that the Twins would extend Maeda a qualifying offer when he entered free agency. But with Minnesota planning to cut payroll next year, it’s easy to understand why the Twins didn’t want to risk Maeda accepting the offer and locking in a $20.325 million salary for 2024. As a result, Minnesota will receive no compensation for Maeda’s departure. SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson writes that the Twins were only interested in Maeda on a one-year contract.
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