As the clocks turn back, our focus turns to the final stretch of the college football season. With Week 10 now in the books, there are several notable developments in the College Football Playoff and conference championship races that will be reflected in the new Top 25 rankings released Sunday.
For the first time since Week 4, every single team in the AP Top 25 played an FBS opponent, with four games between the ranked teams. Of those four games, none captured the nation’s attention as much as Alabama’s 42-28 win over LSU under the lights, a game in which Jalen Milroe was the star of a victory that put the Crimson Tide in the driver’s seat for the SEC West brought. But the new AP Top 25 rankings will also be affected by the release of the first set of the CFP rankings. The CFP selection committee differed from the AP voters on some teams, and it will be interesting to see if those differences are reflected in the new AP Top 25 on Sunday.
The AP has kept Georgia at No. 1 all season, but the committee has Ohio State ranked first. If the Buckeyes had been more dominant at Rutgers, there might be a change of heart, but given the Bulldogs’ win in a back-and-forth battle with a ranked Missouri team, we’re guessing AP voters won’t be swayed the CFP rankings when it comes to No. 1.
Notre Dame was ranked higher in the AP Top 25 than it was in the CFP rankings, which certainly doesn’t look great considering the Fighting Irish lost to Clemson, but pollsters can chalk up a prescient win with less enthusiasm for USC , as the Trojans have already suffered another defeat due to the defense’s inability to stop Washington.
One point where AP voters may have been in the dark was that Oklahoma State was not ranked in last week’s poll, while the Cowboys were included in the committee’s initial rankings. Now that Mike Gundy’s squad has beaten Oklahoma, hope that the AP voters not only correct their mistake but also rank Oklahoma State among the most losing teams in the country, possibly even in the top 15.
Here’s what we think the new AP Top 25 will look like on Sunday.
1. Georgia (Last week – 1): The Bulldogs are not an infallible No. 1, but they have overcome adversity at several points this season. This suggests that the foundation of this year’s team is solid. Missouri led 13-10 early in the second half, and Carson Beck answered the challenge with back-to-back touchdown drives en route to a 30-21 victory. There were 48 AP voters who had the Bulldogs No. 1 on their ballot last week, and while the margin against Missouri was narrower than the oddsmakers expected, a 9-point win is probably enough to satisfy most of those voters .
2. Michigan (2): There are no signs that off-the-field issues had an obvious impact on the Wolverines’ on-field performance, as Michigan improved to 9-0 with a 41-13 win over Purdue.
3. Ohio State (3): The committee issued a statement ranking the Buckeyes at No. 1 while the AP Top 25 placed them at No. 3, but an early deficit at Rutgers and a subsequent 19-point win may not be enough to clinch the AP -Getting voters to change their minds You see the top teams in the country.
4. Florida State (4): Florida State’s 24-7 win at Pittsburgh didn’t produce many style points, but the Seminoles’ offense had its two best pass-catchers (Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson) on the floor, and the result continues to secure a spot in the Season ACC Championship Game for the first time since 2014. So a good day for the program, but not a result that will greatly change FSU’s place in the rankings.
5.Washington (5): After a few weeks in which the offense didn’t quite live up to expectations, Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies got back into rhythm at USC with a 52-42 win, maintaining their position as the team to beat in the Pac- 12 has to be beaten.
6.Oregon (6): The Ducks’ ability to ignite a team is impressive, and California learned this the hard way when a 14-10 halftime score turned into a 35-13 score and then a final score of 63-19. Bo Nix led the way as usual with 386 passing yards and six total touchdowns, ensuring Oregon didn’t give up any ground in the playoff race ahead of next week’s showdown with USC.
7. Texas (7): The head-to-head lead against Alabama benefits the Longhorns, who were pushed to the brink after blowing a 20-point third-quarter lead in a 33-30 overtime win over Kansas State.
8. Alabama (8): There could definitely be voters who put Alabama ahead of Texas on their ballots after the Crimson Tide’s impressive performance against LSU on Saturday night, but as a consensus we expect the Tide to remain one spot behind the Longhorns.
9. Penn State (9): The offense that faltered against Ohio State a few weeks ago flexed its muscles against Maryland, and the Nittany Lions improved to 8-1 after a 51-15 win over the Terrapins.
10. Ole Miss (11): The Rebels found themselves in a shootout against Texas A&M, but had more answers thanks to their dynamic backfield duo of quarterback Jaxson Dart (387 yards passing, two touchdowns) and running back Quinshon Judkins (102 yards rushing, three touchdowns). The SEC West title hopes may have been dented by Alabama’s win over LSU, but if the Rebels stay on track, they will be in the running for a New Year’s Six bowl bid. (In fact, our Jerry Palm will have them projected for a Sunday.)
11. Louisville (15): The Cardinals were down several key players but still dominated the surging Virginia Tech squad with a 34-3 win to improve to 8-1. Although Louisville’s best win remains a Notre Dame team that will fall in the rankings, this one-loss status will push Jeff Brohm’s squad further toward the top of the poll.
12. Oregon State (16): The Beavers are currently in action in Colorado.
13.Utah (18): There is hardly a better way to shake off the stench of a home loss, which is rare for Utah, than to absolutely chase the next visitor out of the building. Utah’s 55-3 win over an Arizona State team that was lively against the Pac-12’s best should be enough to solidify the Utes’ position as a top-20 team.
14. Tennessee (19): No major changes in the pecking order for the Volunteers after a 59-3 win over UConn.
15. Oklahoma State (NR): While Oklahoma State was ranked No. 22 in the first CFP rankings of the season, the Cowboys became the first unranked team in the AP Top 25 last week. After beating Oklahoma, the surge in voter support was expected to lead to a huge increase, but the fact that many didn’t support the Pokes last week could put a ceiling on their position.
16.Oklahoma (10): Earlier this season, Oklahoma’s ranking was determined by its win against Texas. But after nine games, expect the 7-2 Sooners to be better identified in the rankings by their losses, as back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas have dented postseason prospects for a team that was ranked No. 5. turned the country upside down at the beginning of October.
17. UCLA (20): The Bruins are currently in action in Arizona.
18. LSU (13): Voters might cite Jayden Daniels’ absence in the final minutes of the game as a reason to limit the damage in the rankings caused by the loss to Alabama, but the main reason for the Tigers’ relegation is the fact that they now have three losses and only win against another team in the top 25.
19. Kansas (22): The Jayhawks let Iowa State back into the game in the second half after taking a 14-3 halftime lead, but an 80-yard touchdown run from Jason Bean to Lawrence Arnold in the fourth quarter helped lead the Cyclones to a 28th To keep the :3 lead in check. 21st away win.
20. Missouri (14): Normally there isn’t too much of a penalty for a loss to the No. 1 team, especially considering how close Mizzou played on the road against Georgia. At 7-2 after the 30-21 loss, Missouri will fall but not fall out of the top 25.
21. Tulane (21): There’s not much to be proud of after a 13-10 win at ECU other than the fact that the Green Wave remains undefeated in conference play with an overall record of 8-1.
22. James Madison (23): Although the committee removed the Ducks from their Top 25, we don’t expect their status for the AP Top 25 to change, especially after a 28-point win over Georgia State in Atlanta.
23. Notre Dame (12): A win over USC is the strongest argument for Notre Dame’s ranked profile now that it has three losses and the Fighting Irish were defeated by an unranked opponent for the first time this season. Clemson may maintain a high power rating in the eyes of oddsmakers (as evidenced by its 3-point margin), but it’s still a 5-4 team that won’t check the “quality loss” box for many voters .
24. Freedom (NR): We expect Liberty to break into the Top 25 multiple times this season without AP voters following suit. The strength of the schedule doesn’t do the Flames any favors, but when weighing a 9-0 squad against three-loss teams with mixed records, the loss column could use a little more attention.
25. Kansas State (25): Kansas State isn’t expected to be on every ballot, but there could be enough ballots to stay in the top 25 even at 6-3. The Wildcats put Texas ahead with a 3-point overtime loss on the road, meaning all three road losses this season have come in one-score games.
Projected exit: No. 17 Air Force, No. 24 USC