College football’s Week 5 results showed how fragile a top-25 ranking can be, but even as many top teams struggled with surprise fears, the new college football rankings will give voters an opportunity to make their own Redefine expectations for the future. While the top of the AP Top 25 remains mostly intact due to a lack of real surprises, there is definitely some movement following Saturday’s exciting final results.
Ole Miss made history in its 55-49 win over LSU by producing 700 yards of offense and scoring more than 50 points against an SEC and AP ranked opponent. The Rebels’ epic win, which included three fourth-quarter touchdowns to erase a second-half deficit, represents a major climb in the rankings for a team that is now 4-1, with its only loss coming against Alabama is. For LSU, now at 3-2, the debate for many voters will not only be about where to place the Tigers, but whether to even include them on their ballot, as many teams that who were not on the rankings in last week’s vote, improved to 5-0.
Unranked teams that improved to 5-0 in Week 5 included rivals Kentucky and Louisville, both of which had big conference wins over Florida and NC State, respectively. We expect them to make it into the AP Top 25 poll, while other teams like Maryland, Air Force and James Madison are also hoping for more representation after a spotless record in September.
Here’s what we predict the new AP Top 25 will look like on Sunday after Week 5 action:
1. Georgia (Last week – 1): Despite being sidelined at Jordan-Hare Stadium, their No. 1 status won’t change thanks to a great performance from Brock Bowers against Auburn.
2. Michigan (2): The competition should get tougher as conference play begins, but Michigan dismantles every opponent the same way. A 45-7 win at Nebraska in their first road game should give some confidence to those who view the Wolverines as one of the top teams in the country.
3. Texas (3): The game, which featured just a single point after halftime, spiraled out of control as Kansas’ inability to sustain offense against a stout Texas defense became the game’s breaking point. The Longhorns gained more than 600 yards on offense and had three more first downs (33-11) in a dominant performance that may not even have been reflected in the 26-point lead.
4. Ohio State (4): The Buckeyes were out in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Maryland.
5. Florida State (5): The Seminoles were out in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Virginia Tech.
6. Penn State (6): It got off to a slow start for the Nittany Lions, who trailed Northwestern 10-10 at halftime in Evanston, Illinois. But Penn State woke up and outscored the Wildcats by 28 points in the second half en route to a 41-13 victory that keeps this group on the path to the Big Ten title and College Football Playoff contention.
7.Washington (7): A narrower-than-expected 31-24 win in Arizona largely flew under the radar, but surviving and advancing likely means the Huskies will remain in the rankings. Washington receives a bye before a massive Pac-12 showdown against Oregon in Week 7.
8. USC (8): Small gaps in voting points between the Trojans and sixth place in last week’s poll presented the opportunity for advancement with a clear win over Colorado. After allowing the Buffaloes to get back into the game, USC likely lost its chance to move up in the rankings, especially since other teams won by larger margins.
9.Oregon (9): Like Penn State, Oregon had an early score that raised concerns about a potential upset, only to flip the script and win by a wide margin. Stanford led 6-0 early in the second quarter, but a 42-0 run by the Ducks left a lopsided final score that should keep Oregon in a similar position Sunday.
10. Notre Dame (11): Marcus Freeman says the team learned from last week’s loss to Ohio State and there was at least some evidence in the late-game execution that helped the Fighting Irish overcome a second-half attack from the Blue Devils and with 21:14 to win.
11.Alabama (12): It’s been a tough few weeks for the Crimson Tide, but a 40-17 win at Mississippi State felt more like the team we’ve come to know under coach Nick Saban. Despite some struggles on offense early in the season, Alabama is 4-1 and is knocking on the door to get back into the top 10.
12. Ole Miss (20): LSU’s 711 yards of total offense set a new school record for an SEC game, and the 55 points scored were the most ever against an AP-ranked opponent. While the game was expected to be close, the resilience and late-game effort will resonate with voters as they adjust their ballots.
13.Oklahoma (14): Heading into the Red River Showdown, Oklahoma appears primed to take on the newly minted Big 12 favorites. The Sooners had a 50-point lead over Iowa State, grabbed a one-point game midway through the second quarter and turned it into a 30-point win.
14. North Carolina (15): The Tar Heels were out in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Syracuse.
15. Washington State (16): The Cougars were out in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against UCLA.
16. Oregon State (19): There will definitely be an uptick in the ratings after Friday night’s 21-7 win over Utah, but due to the head-to-head loss to Washington State, there is a ceiling for the top 25. By beating the Utes, Oregon State will end up one of the top-ranked one-loss teams in the AP Top 25, but due to the Cougars’ current position, it will not be the top-ranked one-loss team in the order.
17.Miami (18): The Hurricanes were out in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Georgia Tech.
18. Kentucky (NR): An SEC team that piles up wins will always get voters’ attention, but after finishing just two spots outside of the top 25 last week, the Wildcats could separate themselves from the rest after a 19-point win over Florida Ranked teams take off were previously listed at number 22. Running back Ray Davis led the way with 280 yards and four touchdowns, delivering the kind of performance that will add excitement to next week’s battle with No. 1 Georgia.
19. Duke (17): It hurts to lose a game against Notre Dame in the final minute, but star quarterback Riley Leonard being sidelined with an injury on the game’s crucial play makes the Blue Devils’ future even worse. All eyes will be on Leonard’s status to predict what comes next for Duke, which despite Saturday’s non-conference loss is still in the ACC title race thanks to its season-opening win over Clemson.
20. Tennessee (21): The big headline from Saturday’s win over South Carolina is less about Joe Milton and Tennessee’s passing game and more about how the Vols’ defense limited Spencer Rattler and led Jaylen Wright and the ground game to a 41-20 win.
21. Missouri (23): Brady Cook had a standout performance at Vanderbilt, throwing for 395 yards in a 38-21 win that gave the Tigers their best start since 2013.
22. Fresno State (25): The Bulldogs are currently in action against Nevada.
23. Utah (10): The Utes are certainly headed for a decline after their 21-7 loss at Oregon State. At first glance, an away loss to a top-20 team shouldn’t warrant a significant drop, but the team’s offensive woes could lead to an even stronger reaction from voters. Utah has averaged 16.3 points in its four games against FBS opponents, and its defense has contributed both directly and indirectly to that performance.
24. Louisville (NR): The Cardinals are 5-0 after a hard-fought road win at NC State and are expected to move into the top 25 after ranking 28th in voting points heading into the weekend.
25. LSU (13): There’s a chance Kansas State, the first team eliminated last week, gets that spot as voters punish LSU for a second loss. I’m skeptical that an SEC team with two losses to other teams in the rankings will jump out of the rankings entirely, especially given Ole Miss’ slim margin.
Expected exit: Florida (22), Kansas (24)