The college football rankings will be shaken when the new AP Top 25 poll is updated on Sunday after an epic Week 7 in which the scores and results somehow lived up to sky-high expectations ahead of Separation Saturday. Eight ranked teams suffered losses in Week 7, but that’s largely the result of a seven-game draw between ranked opponents. Three of those games had teams going into the weekend unbeaten, and while all three results will have an impact on the new standings, none resonated as deeply in the sports world as Tennessee’s 52-49 win over Alabama.
The win brought all manner of history into play, including Tennessee breaking a 15-game losing streak to win for the first time against a Nick Saban-led Alabama team. It was also the most points the Crimson Tide has allowed in a game since 1907. All of this raises an interesting question for voters: should the Vols, now 6-0 behind arguably the best offensive line in the country, be considered for the No. 1 spot?
What Tennessee has undeniably demonstrated is the most impressive win of any undefeated team. Alabama lost, but not Bryce Young (shoulder), who was back in action for the first time since he was eliminated from the game against Arkansas two weeks ago, and the rest of the Tide seems unworthy of its own top-five status. The teams traded haymakers in one of college football’s modern epics, and this win for the Vols ranks stronger than anything else on the profile for any of the other teams in the No. 1 race.
What is debatable is the value of a “ranked win” given the difference between the teams ranked at the time of specific games and the current ranking. Tennessee’s four wins against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the games are the most in the country, but of those four, only one (Alabama) wins against a team expected to take the poll on Sunday. The wins against Pittsburgh, Florida and LSU still have merit as all three have winning records, but even then all three ranked outside of the top 15. If a voter wants to critique the value of those “ranking wins” when splitting hairs among the undefeated teams, there’s a counter to one of the Vols’ strongest CV arguments.
Ultimately, we believe Tennessee will get the first-place votes in the new college football rankings. The problem with how high the vols can go lies mainly in considering the motivations and thoughts of the voters who gave the states of Georgia and Ohio the first votes in last week’s poll. Expect some, if not most, of the 11 voters who ranked Alabama at No. 1 last week to shift those votes to Tennessee or Georgia; the Bulldogs beat Vanderbilt 55-0. How many of the 32 voters who ranked Georgia No. 1 will be moved to move the reigning national champion down a spot after Tennessee’s win, and how many of the 20 voters who ranked Ohio State will do the same move while the Buckeyes had the week off?
If Georgia had struggled with their Week 7 opponent and if Ohio State had been in action and done the same, then the door could have been open for promotion to the top. Instead, the debate will begin with the votes for first place and linger among fans across the country into the week. It’s an intriguing twist on the 2022 season and may just be a preview of the convulsions to come with more games between ranked teams in the coming weeks.
Here’s what we think Sunday’s new AP Top 25 looks like:
1. Georgia (Last week – 1): It’s highly unlikely that a majority of the voters who thought Georgia were the best team in the country last week would look at the Week 7 results and think a 55-0 win over Vanderbilt wasn’t good enough for the Bulldogs, to hold them position.
2. State of Ohio (2): The Buckeyes were out in Week 7 and will be back in action against Iowa next week.
3. Tennessee (6): As previously mentioned, there’s a strong case for Tennessee being a first-place contender. We believe the Vols will get first place votes, but not enough to overtake the Buckeyes, who garnered more than 30% of the first place votes last week.
4.Michigan (5): We anticipate a return to No. 4 after the Wolverines dominated in three Spotlight games between undefeated teams. The 41-17 win over Penn State revived voter confidence that had waned in recent weeks and cemented Michigan’s place as Ohio State’s top contender in the Big Ten.
5. Clement (4): The Tigers put on a strong performance in a complete win over Florida State and closed our ACC away table with a 34-28 win.
6. TCU (13): The Horned Frogs have beaten three consecutive ranked opponents for the first time in school history after storming back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to win in double overtime against previously undefeated Oklahoma State. Now 6-0 and 3-0 in league play, TCU can start banging the drum for more respect from voters and a place in the CFP conversation.
7. Alabama (3): If there’s going to be any momentum behind Tennessee, there has to be high bottom for the Tide when it comes to its decline in the rankings. A late missed field goal was one of several moments Alabama nearly eluded Rocky Top with a comeback win, and those thin margins are being recognized by voters.
8. Ole Miss (9): Voters won’t penalize Ole Miss for allowing a stumbling Auburn team to hang out in a game that turned out to be a more interesting early slate game than many expected. But the win, which ended by 14 points after a weather delay, wasn’t emphatic enough to put the Rebels in the debate for a top-five spot.
9. UCLA (11): The Bruins were knocked out in Week 7 and will be back in action against Oregon next week.
10. Oregon (12): The Ducks were out in Week 7 and will be back in action against UCLA next week.
11. State of Oklahoma (8): A playful lead on the road in conference play isn’t uncommon, but it still hurts when you consider what this team’s cap could have been with a straight win over another Big 12 title contender. Oklahoma State is good enough to win a rematch with TCU in the Big 12 championship game, but now the margins for that game are even tighter with a conference loss on the books and six Big 12 games remaining on the schedule.
12.Pennsylvania (10): Wins at Purdue and Auburn are the best marks on the profile, which isn’t particularly strong. The eye test helps Penn State, because even though the Nittany Lions were clearly defeated on Saturday, the plays are clearly there for being one of the better teams in the country.
13.USC (7): Losing 43-42 as a road underdog to ranked Utah won’t come with too many poll adjustments, but there will be a drop for the Trojans.
14. Utah (20): The Utes will edge USC on many votes due to the head-to-head advantage, but two losses remains a factor preventing a jump into the top 10.
15. Guard Forest (14): The Demon Deacons were knocked out in Week 7 and will be back in action against Boston College next week.
16. Syracuse (18): The Dome was electrifying, affecting the outcome as Syracuse seized the opportunity to earn a high-profile win over a Devin Leary-less NC State, beating the Wolfpack 24-9 to go 6-0. Qualified for the Bowl for the first time since 2018, Syracuse now turns its attention to the ACC title fight with a showdown against Clemson next week in Death Valley.
17. State of Kansas (17): The Wildcats were out in Week 7 and will be back in action at TCU next week.
18 Illinois (24): After their best start since 2011 with a 26-14 win over Minnesota, the Illini have now secured themselves the driving seat of the Big Ten West race.
19. Cincinnati (21): The Bearcats were out in Week 7 and will be back in action at SMU next week.
20. Kentucky (22): Some punches at Will Levis and his status moving forward will be the headline news, but the fact that Kentucky’s defense clinched the opportunity with a 27-17 win over a strong Mississippi State offense should be something for Wildcats fans be encouraging to those hoping for a successful ending to the 2022 campaign.
21.Texas (22): One week “Can Texas get into the college football playoffs with two losses?” The hype was quickly cooled by a disgruntled Iowa State squad, but a 24-21 win keeps the Longhorns in the Big 12 title race — and that’s the more realistic goal for 2022.
22. North Carolina (NR): Despite placing in last week’s Coaches Poll, the Tar Heels became the first team outside of the AP Top 25. After beating Duke and improving to 6-1, look to North Carolina for a place in the AP Top 25 13 months.
23. State of Mississippi (16): Although the Bulldogs lost to Kentucky on the road as favorites, voters will be faced with a lack of obvious options to get ahead of their 5-2 profile for the final spots on a ballot.
24. Tulane (NR): The Green Wave improved to 6-1 with a two-touchdown win over South Florida, and thanks to a handful of teams suffering losses in last week’s voting, there should be room for a climb to the top
25. Purdue (NR): Now 4-2 after beating Nebraska, the Boilermakers could get even more attention. The argument for Purdue’s resume comes from the classic discussion of a “good loss,” since his only two losses have come to other ranked teams (a loss to Penn State, undefeated Syracuse) and both losses were by four points or less.
Expected Eliminations: #15 NC State, #19 Kansas, #25 James Madison