With just two weeks left in the 2022 regular season, the college football ladder is mostly settled. But when the updated AP Top 25 is released on Sunday, we expect some changes after a busy week 11 of scores and results across esports. Each team from last week’s AP Top 25 played four games between the ranked teams, allowing for some movement up and down the ladder.
The most notable moves will center on the Pac-12, where Washington will take a big bounce after its road riot against Oregon’s top-10 and UCLA will take a hit for their home loss to unranked Arizona. Georgia will remain on top and likely come close to a unanimous No. 1 selection. Although both Ohio State and Michigan dominated in wins, those games came at home against teams that had lost records, while the Bulldogs were just as impressive on the road against a team that will be there in the postseason.
TCU could potentially move up to No. 3 on some ballots after clinching a low-scoring win in Texas, but the disparity in voting points between the Horned Frogs and Wolverines last week was far too great to expect a consensus ranking change. If you have four games between ranked teams, such as B. TCU’s win in Texas and Washington’s excitement against Oregon, there are guaranteed to be some changes in the order, but not always a change in the teams ranked in the poll.
The Ducks won’t fall too far, and neither will Ole Miss likely after both teams went into the weekend with just one loss and were narrowly defeated. Texas faces a very different situation, as the TCU loss was Steve Sarkisian’s fourth loss of the season, making the Longhorns arguably the most interesting loser of the top-25 weekend from a ranking perspective.
Some of the most dramatic week-to-week adjustments should come at the end of the survey. NC State’s loss to Boston College, Liberty’s loss to UConn, and Illinois’ loss to Purdue will unlock spots in the leaderboard, and AP voters will have a diverse collection of nominees for those final spots. This is especially true as some of the teams that sat just outside the top 25 last week suffered losses, including Kentucky, Wake Forest and Baylor.
Here’s what we think Sunday’s new AP Top 25 looks like.
1. Georgia (Last week – 1): No change at No. 1 after Georgia picked up its championship form on the road and played Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have won the SEC East for the fifth time in six years and have a chance to win it straight next week with an 8-0 conference record against Kentucky in the SEC on CBS Game of the Week.
2. State of Ohio (2): After a 56-14 win over Indiana, there are no worries for the Buckeyes, although there are some concerns about injury problems in that team. TreVeyon Henderson stopped playing, and Miyan Williams left the game on the cart, leaving the running back room terribly thin by the end of the game. But as long as CJ Stroud (five touchdowns) and at least a few of the blue-chip wide receivers on this roster are healthy, the Buckeyes can be in contention for a national championship.
3.Michigan (3): Not much of a change in position for Michigan after a 34-3 win over Nebraska that pretty much matched expectations for the gameplay.
4. TCU (4): The magic run for Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs continues as a win over Texas in Austin secures a berth in the Big 12 title game, taking the team 10-0.
5. Tennessee (5): The 66-24 win over Missouri was a give-and-go contest, with the Volunteers taking an early lead and then stepping on the gas whenever the Tigers got close. Hendon Hooker threw three touchdowns in his last game at Neyland Stadium, and the Vols put a number on the board that will keep voters (and especially the College Football Playoff Selection Committee) interested in their top-four chances.
6. LSU (7): The 13-10 win in Arkansas wasn’t very offensive, but Harold Perkins Jr. (four sacks, two forced fumbles) was the best player on the field for both teams. The Tigers, now 6-1 in conference play, have only the home finals against UAB and the regular season finals at Texas A&M before the conference championship weekend.
7.USC (8): A season-ending injury to RB Travis Dye overshadowed an otherwise fine-looking result that saw QB Caleb Williams score three touchdowns and the Trojans win 55-17 over Colorado.
8. Alabama (10): The defense was strong, ending a 30-24 win at Ole Miss. Alabama forced two punts and two turnovers on downs. Byron Young had a team-high 11 tackles ahead with two sacks and a forced fumble and led a defensive line able to feast when Ole Miss got into third-and-long situations.
9. Oregon (6): The biggest strength for Oregon’s ranking profile is the win over UCLA, as it gives the Ducks a chance to remain one of the top-ranked two-loss teams in the country.
10. Klemson (12): The 31-16 win over Louisville was a real moment for Clemson, who relied on the running game and totaled 248 rushing yards and three touchdowns at 5.5 yards per carry.
11. Ole Fraulein (11): The Rebels’ SEC West competition vanished in the narrow loss to the Crimson Tide. Coach Lane Kiffin was fiery after the game, uncaring for any platitudes after another loss to Nick Saban. Ole Miss is out of SEC and CFP competition but has still put together a strong season and could end up in a significant bowl game.
12. UCLA (9): The final top-25 finish of Week 11 was a bad one for the Bruins, who lost to Arizona at home. It’s only the second loss of the season for UCLA, so there’s high ground for how far the team will fall down the ladder, but far more damage has been done to the Bruins’ Pac-12 championship hopes.
13 Utah (13): Despite Stanford leading 7-0 at the end of the first quarter, AP voters will wake up to a final score of 42-7, keeping Utah close to where it was before. The Utes are currently limited in their ability to advance with two losses and a straight loss to UCLA. However, they have one of the best wins of any team with two losses, being the only team to beat USC.
14.Pennsylvania (14): The Nittany Lions defeated Maryland 30-0 and once again moved ahead of Ohio State and Michigan as the third-best team in the Big Ten. Sean Clifford has dwarfed 10,000 yards in his career, becoming Penn State’s first signal caller to do so.
15. North Carolina (15): The Tar Heels captured the ACC Coastal crown for the second time in program history (first since 2015) with a 36-34 win at Wake Forest. Despite being 9-1 and in contention for a conference championship, AP voters can still leave North Carolina behind other teams with two losses in the poll. Drake Maye excelled once again, completing 31 of 49 passes for 448 yards and three touchdowns with 71 yards rushing and another score as his Heisman Trophy bid went up another notch.
16. Washington (24): Michael Penix Jr. delivered on the biggest stage with more than 400 passing yards and the results needed to help the Huskies achieve one of the program’s most notable road wins of the CFP era, 37-34 over Oregon.
17. Notre Dame (20): The Fighting Irish led 35-13 and defeated Navy 35-32. Now 7-3 with four straight wins, Notre Dame is promoted with Boston College next week ahead of the regular-season finals at USC.
18.UCF (22): The Knights jumped to pole position for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid with a 38-31 win in Tulane, edging out the Green Wave for the top spot. John Rhys Plumlee returned with three total touchdowns and 176 rushing yards.
19. Tulane (16): Now 8-2 with a win over Kansas State, it’s fair for Tulane to be let down by a must-win berth against UCF. If the Green Wave want another shot at the Knights, they can get it, but they must defeat SMU and Cincinnati in the last two games of the season to get to the AAC Championship Game.
20. State of Kansas (23): Another week of Kansas State quarterback injuries to overcome, and yet the Wildcats had the answer. Adrian Martinez left with an injury, but Will Howard pitched in with three touchdown passes in a 31-3 win at Baylor.
21.Texas (18): The Longhorns are in danger of dropping out of the top 25 just because they have four losses. Our prediction is that victory at Kansas State, a narrow lead over TCU, and a lack of consensus for next teams will keep Texas in the top 25.
22. State of Florida (25): The Seminoles are on the upswing right now, following a 42-point win in Miami with a 35-point win in Syracuse. As LSU’s stock goes up, so does Florida State’s profile, which despite three losses also boasts a win against the SEC West champion.
23. Cincinnati (NR): As one of the few teams just outside the top 25 to win in Week 11, the Bearcats expect to return to the leaderboard after improving to 8-2 with a win over ECU on Friday night.
24. UTSA (NR): The 8-2 Roadrunners just beat Louisiana Tech 51-7 for the team’s seventh straight win. UTSA is 6-0 in conference play and could pose a threat to other teams bidding for a New Year’s Six bid in the coming weeks.
25. Troy (NR): Like UTSA, Troy is hot right now with seven straight wins. It just improved to 8-2 with a win over Army. It’s possible that Sun Belt rivals, Coastal Carolina or Oklahoma State, will get that spot, but we think the win over the Black Knights could garner enough attention to boost vote points.
Probable eliminations: #17 NC State, #19 Liberty, #21 Illinois