by Alessandra Muglia
Former British Prime Minister: the Russian leader surrounded by those who don’t tell him the truth, and that’s dangerous. The solution must have the approval of the Ukrainian people
Shouldn’t we humiliate Putin? But we never did. As Prime Minister, I have closely monitored this report. Along with the other Western leaders, we did everything we could to get him involved. Our only concern today should be to end the conflict with the consent of the Ukrainian people, without Russia taking any advantage of this aggression.
In an interview with Corriere, Tony Blair clearly points out what tone the West should adopt in this crisis. The former British Prime Minister is also speaking – via Zoom – because of the special relationship he had with the Tsar during his ten years at Downing Street. Blair was the first Western leader to meet Putin when he was still prime minister and waiting to become president following the resignation of Boris Yeltsin: he visited him in St. Petersburg in March 2000. And the following month he received him in London on his own first official visit to a foreign country. The former British Labor leader speaks from the broad perspective of those who have grappled with the global challenges facing emerging markets for years. And with a view to all the victims of this crisis, including those far from the battlefield. We met him a few weeks ago in Accra, Ghana, where his Institute for Global Change is campaigning for the digitization of the national healthcare system through the cloud. We work with around twenty governments in Africa. Through technology, we want to improve their management systems, starting with public health. But we also have projects in other parts of the world.
The war in Ukraine threatens to starve Africa and also to block these development processes.
Many African countries depend on wheat imports, especially from Russia and Ukraine. Now Moscow does not export, and also prevents Ukraine from doing so, blocking its sea routes. The World Food Program and other organizations are trying to help governments get access to wheat and sunflower oil, or use alternatives like cassava or palm oil, or source very basic foods from other countries. But really difficult. In Africa, the consequences not only affect food, but also the sharp rise in oil prices. The broader implications of this vast conflict. It must be stopped.
Will Russia not stop until it is stopped, or does it still see an opportunity for negotiation? In your opinion, which you have met several times in the past, how do you deal with Putin? Should the West be concerned about not humiliating him, as Macron and Biden have suggested?
We should be worried about reaching the end of the conflict and Italy has made some suggestions these days. The basis must be that Russia does not take advantage of this aggression and that it has the consent of the Ukrainian people. That was an unjustified attack. And having often met President Putin in the early stages of his presidency with this idea that he was surrounded by hostile powers, that America, Britain and Europe were trying to humiliate Russia, that unfounded idea. I was there back then, the G7 were G8 back then. I received Putin at Downing Street, we welcomed Russia to the NATO summit, we did our best to reassure him. Unfortunately, in his opinion, the encirclement is not real. If an end to the conflict can be negotiated on a fair basis, then we must do so. The problem was that in the first few weeks of the war, before the atrocities were committed, it was relatively easy to find a solution. Now no: Ukrainians feel they rejected the Russians, but also that Russia still occupies a large part of their territory, so they will want to catch up before sitting down at the table.
When did you last meet Putin?
Formally shortly before leaving office. At first he appeared to be a leader focused on his country’s economy, wanting to reform it with the West in mind. Russia has enormous resources and a young and intelligent population: there are many opportunities Moscow could have seized. Before long, he became increasingly anti-Western for the same leader and began dismantling the country’s democratic controls. Despite the authoritarian tendencies of those years, he still remained a great calculator. And quite brutal in some of his actions. To scare me today of witnessing an invasion that seems to be the product of an error of judgement, of the world’s total misunderstanding. My foundation has a project in Ukraine and I have been there every year since I resigned as Prime Minister. No one who knows the land and is familiar with its people would believe that they would welcome an invasion. But Putin was convinced of the opposite and none of his followers made him think twice. So now Putin is surrounded by people who don’t dare to tell him the truth. This is dangerous.
Assuming he was ever a reformer, what did he weigh in this metamorphosis?
I think the close bond that formed between him and the people around him, who amassed huge fortunes and a lot of power, played a role. At some point, the reform of the economy, i.e. its opening and transparency, was no longer the priority. In fact, it would have been contrary to those interests and his way of governing.
The war in Ukraine seems to be helping the EU find its way back. Not only Ukraine, but also other eastern countries are asking for admission. Would the European confederation also be an attractive proposition for London?
I can’t see what the future of the UK will be: we’re still trying to heal the wounds of Brexit. As for Europe, I believe that the war will strengthen it. The best example of what the Union can do to compare Poland and Ukraine: Before 1992, the per capita income of the average Pole and the average Ukrainian was more or less the same. Today the wealth of the former is three to four times that of pre-conflict Ukrainians. And that’s because Warsaw is part of the EU. The reason these countries want to join is not just security: they want to be part of that European area which, despite all the challenges ahead, is an area of prosperity and the rule of law. Europe is always one step away from crisis, but observing it not month by month but decade by decade, Europe is a very successful political and economic project destined to strengthen over time.
Europe is looking to Africa to replace Russian gas. Some producing countries are not exactly stability fanatics. Can it be trusted?
I believe several African countries are reliable producers. However, we would not rely on just one country. Italy, for example, is looking to various African countries such as Algeria, Mozambique and others in West Africa for self-sufficiency in the future. But I believe that countries like Italy, like Great Britain or other European countries want to diversify their energy sources so as not to be completely dependent on a single producer. The problem is that this takes time. So, in the short term, it is very difficult to replace Russian gas and oil. We’ll be able to replace that fuel in 10 years, maybe even less for some supplies. We should have acted after the 2014 invasion of Crimea. It’s a long time to start now. For this aspect as well, ending the conflict would be the best solution.
May 23, 2022 (Modification May 23, 2022 | 08:35)
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