Will the conflict between Hamas and Israel escalate into an all-out war that would spread to the rest of the region and possibly the world? The provisional answer to this question is no. Or, in any case, that the likelihood of the conflict expanding is decreasing day by day. Public opinion is certainly shaken by the horrors of war reported in the media. In the Muslim camp they lead to a feeling of solidarity and anger. Among Israel’s allies, they oscillate between deep disgust at Hamas’ inhumane attacks and a desire to save the lives of innocent Palestinians. At the moment, the reasons of state take precedence over all other considerations, and that’s all the better. This can be read between the lines of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s Friday speech.
1) What did the Hezbollah leader say?
Three things should be learned from the Hezbollah leader’s speech. First, Hezbollah claims that Hamas’ October 7 attack was 100% Palestinian. One way to say that Hezbollah was not involved in this attack. Second, Nasrallah believes that the war against Hamas could escalate into an all-out war. How? He does not explain it in detail, but claims that the development of the Israeli army’s actions will determine it. Finally, Hezbollah’s leader made a series of accusations against the United States. Not only would they be responsible for the war, but they would also prevent the Israeli army from stopping its attack on Gaza. These latter claims are contradictory to the facts. They are actually intended to stir up hatred against the USA. If Hezbollah had had to attack Israel with all its forces, it probably would have done so sooner. Hezbollah warns of all-out war, which it obviously does not want. It must be understood that Hezbollah has a very poor reputation in Lebanon and that a war with Israel could lead to the organization’s destruction.
2) What is Iran’s interest?
Iran probably has nuclear weapons. In this sense, it has less to fear military attacks than before. Furthermore, the Iranian people have revolted against their leaders. There was no way she would follow them into war unless the country was attacked. Given its unstable economy, Iran has no interest in an all-out war.
3) What is Israel’s interest?
Israel must pacify its borders, both the internal borders with Gaza and the West Bank and the external borders with its neighbors. The Israelis do not agree on the method of pacifying these borders. Religious extremists in power with Benjamin Netanyahu believe that this pacification includes the colonization of Palestinian areas and even neighboring areas. In reality, it is a logic of war that only leads to more wars. But for reasons of low birth rates alone, Israel needs peace and not all-out war.
4) What is the interest of the United States?
Contrary to what its opponents claim, the United States has an interest in a stable region. The war threatens the commercial interests of the United States and its allies, except arms. Washington does not want all-out war.
5) What is the interest of the Palestinians?
The Palestinians must have an independent state to finally be successful. All-out war would decimate them and its outcome would be uncertain.
