For Americans and Israelis, the conflict in Gaza has reached a turning point. The next phase is expected to include a resumption of hostage negotiations with Hamas, accompanied by a ceasefire lasting two or more weeks, followed by a gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from northern Gaza. This is the scenario outlined by David Ignatius, a Washington Post writer and commentator who is always well versed in the background of international politics, and who argues that Israel's constant public statements that the war will continue for “months” “are a tactic against Hamas.
The analysis
“Israeli leaders know that they must enter a new phase of the conflict, if only to allow the reservists to leave the front and resume their work,” writes Ignatius, emphasizing that while the Israeli plans “ are still unclear” In fact, they accepted the basis of the scenario proposed by the Biden administration. This envisages a Gaza Strip in which Hamas can no longer impose its political will, while other Palestinians, probably from the Palestinian Authority, are in charge of the government, supported by a peacekeeping force made up of moderate Arab countries “which Hamas does almost as much.” “I hate Israel very much like they do, even if they don’t say it out loud.”
This interim body would, in effect, be a “Gaza Reconstruction Authority” that would have to deal with the “day after” in the enclave, in which the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, can hopefully play a key role it provides money, leadership and legitimacy for reconstruction.
The Biden administration is urging Israel to move to this less aggressive phase as soon as possible, i.e. by the end of the year, to avoid further civilian casualties. A position made clear during recent visits to Israel by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin. The State Department has prepared a 20-page document detailing key steps and options for the post-conflict phase.
Benjamin Netanyahu has resisted this pressure, and on the Israeli side there is talk of a transition in January, if not later. But “one recognizes the need to open a new phase,” Ignatius says, stressing that this will not mean that fighting will not continue, especially in the southern Gaza Strip.
“The situation on the battlefield in Gaza is far from resolved,” he continues. “Israeli commanders believe that in the north of the Gaza Strip, Hamas's command and control structures are broken: the units are fighting but are unable to communicate with politicians and the military.” Leaders, Yehiya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, the hiding in the south, probably near Khan Younis. Their killing is one of Israel's main goals, but the matter is also complicated by the fact that “the two leaders likely surrounded themselves with the remaining hostages,” which presented Israel with “the dilemma between pulverizing Hamas and rescuing the hostages.” .
From this perspective, the attempt is to restart negotiations with Hamas over Qatar for the release of the hostages, for which the Israelis are considering an extended ceasefire, perhaps for two weeks, so that Hamas can reunite and extradite the hostages. And it is also possible that Israel could commit to withdrawing its troops, but it would like to have the freedom to do so gradually.
Meanwhile, the US and Israel appear to agree on the need to take urgent action on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, including to stem the wave of international criticism of Israel and “its protective superpower” for the nearly 20,000 Palestinian victims. Also because the threat of cholera epidemics and other diseases has become real in the Gaza Strip, where 85% of the 2 million inhabitants are displaced and have no access to water and sanitation.
Since the beginning of the conflict, after the Hamas attacks on October 7, the Israelis have urged Palestinian civilians to move from north to south, but now, with the south becoming the main battlefield, the Israelis are considering creating such the “humanitarian” definition “islands” in the north, pushing Palestinian civilians to move in the opposite direction.
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