Undaunted, Comrade Lenin shows the way. On the pedestal, untouched by time and perestroika, he stretches out his right arm towards Chisinau. Not far away, the soldiers of the “Russian Peacekeeping Force” paint the “Zeta” on the trucks. They go in the opposite direction, towards the Ukrainian border.
Transnistria is a candidate to become Putin’s ace up the sleeve for scrambling the geographic maps south of Kyiv, against Odessa and between Moldova and Romania, which is a member of the EU and NATO. That’s what the intelligence agencies of half the world are worried about. It is enough to cross the bridge over the Dniester River, occupied by the Russian military, although Transnistria was never recognized by Moldova, to see behind the apparent postSoviet calm the first steps of the military dispatched from Moscow. On the ground it would be at least 1,500, but those are numbers supplied by Moscow that no one has ever really been able to verify. A source from Avvenire had warned us against entering the enclave, where it is forbidden to take photos and especially to ask questions. “Russian forces responsible for controlling war material are in place,” the source warned. And “in their place” means to move. To stave off popular panic, the Moldovan government is minimizing operations and making sure these are Putin’s usual ploys to exert pressure. Meanwhile, the convoys are moving north with the “Z”.
In Grigoriopol, as in the capital Tiraspol, Lenin is revered, so to speak. Behind the statue, the Vostok cinema, which can be reached by walking along Viale Karl Marx, is announcing four USmade films from April 16. And it doesn’t matter if the hammer and sickle are more present than road signs. In these parts, the narcorubli weigh more. But nothing can be taken for granted. 40% of the population is of Ukrainian origin and the “Z” is frowned upon, because the opinion of half a million inhabitants does not count here.
The movement of the Moscow battalions in Transnistria would be hastened by news circulated in Kyiv and confirmed in Bucharest. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry confirmed that it had “started negotiations with Romania to ship agricultural exports through Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta as the Russian invasion blocked the ports.” Geography doesn’t lie, so Odessa isn’t over the hill yet. In fact, the western region leads overland through a flat tongue towards the border with Romania, right on the Black Sea, with one obstacle in between: Transnistria. If Kyiv manages to keep lines of communication secure, agricultural products could be transported overland both along the coast and through Moldova to Romania, only to be stowed on the cargoes bound for Europe and the US. It is estimated that the country has already lost nearly €1.5 billion in missed food exports and could continue at a rate of €1 billion a month. According to trade newspaper Container World, trade in goods through Constanta and other Romanian ports increased by 8% before the conflict and the Bucharest government said it could increase deliveries.
These expeditions could be hampered by the Ghost Republic military. A signal came a few days ago. The Russian Foreign Ministry has summoned the Moldovan ambassador to protest against a demonstration in front of the Moscow embassy in Chisinau. “The Russian side has strongly protested reads a note about a bad action in front of the Russian embassy in Chisinau on March 24, the participants of which showed offensive slogans and behaved in an unacceptable manner.” The fear is that Moscow could look out for den Casus Belli: “The Moldovan side it goes on has been urged to respect international obligations and to take appropriate measures to prevent the repetition of similar actions”.
The movements of the Russian troops are not just a bugbear. But a new message to Europe. In fact, it took the war in Ukraine before an international body tore through the veil of hypocrisy. For a long time, the Russian occupation of Moldova, disguised as “peacekeeping”, was tolerated in the small breakaway region. But on March 15, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, an organization from which Moscow is gradually being expelled, passed a resolution defining Transnistria as territory “occupied” by Russia.
On Grigoriopol darkness comes together with rain. Lenin always points to Chisinau, but in Moldova they hope that the Russian commanders will continue to ignore him and look the other way.