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(CNN) — Temperatures are rising, Covid cases are falling, restrictions are being lifted in the blink of an eye and summer vacation is so close you can smell the sunscreen. But getting away this year won’t be easy or relaxing.
Experts warn the chaos travelers endured during spring break is a harbinger of worse.
Anyone thinking of air travel over the next few months faces possible delays or cancellations as airlines struggle to rebuild capacity and workforces that have shrunk dramatically during the pandemic. Add in the latest flip-flop confusion about US airplane mask mandates, and we’re heading for a season of stress levels that would rock even the most seasoned traveler. It takes more than the prospect of a fully reclining business class seat to keep aviation anxiety at bay.
While many of the problems are global, it is in the United States that they are being felt most severely at the moment. With China still subject to regular lockdowns, America is likely on track to reclaim its crown as the busiest country for air passengers.
And it just experienced its busiest weekend since Covid arrived, as 6.5million travelers passed through airport security from Friday to Sunday. However, not everyone boarded their scheduled flight.
Nearly 1,000 flights to or from the United States were canceled over the weekend, adding to legions that had not taken off in previous weeks.
Security and reduced schedules
JetBlue aircraft land at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia on January 18, 2022. JetBlue recently announced that it was retiring its summer flight schedule.
Stefani Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images
More is to come as major US airlines say they don’t have enough pilots to fly their schedules.
JetBlue and Alaska Airlines have already scaled back their summer schedules. It’s likely that others will have to do the same or play fast and loose with what they offer their customers.
Worse, there could be implications for flight safety.
One pilot’s union — the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association, or SWAPA — recently wrote a letter to executives highlighting increasing pilot fatigue and warning that acute and cumulative levels of fatigue are now the greatest risk to flight safety. Southwest Airlines has acknowledged an increase in fatigue complaints.
At the root of this problem are actions taken by airlines to stay afloat in the early days of the pandemic, when fleets of passenger planes were grounded and the skies fell silent. Bleeding, airlines quickly began unloading planes and laying off thousands of pilots and support crews.
CNN anchor Alisyn Camerota and aviation correspondent Pete Muntean discussed the issue of pilot fatigue Monday on Interview Club, one of the offerings on new streaming platform CNN+.
Pilot fatigue “is something that’s been brewing for a while,” Mutean said. “And that means the system is really stressed at the moment. So many people are returning to flying, especially over the Easter and Passover holiday weekend.”
“Airlines are generally smaller and crews are struggling to keep up,” he said.
Making the problem worse: Some pilots have reached retirement age or decided to quit the profession, meaning major U.S. passenger airlines have been trying to cope with a return to 90% of pre-pandemic traffic levels, but with fewer people serving the planes fly.
And while flight crew hours are heavily regulated, unions say pilots working their maximum hours mean they can’t make time for stress caused by other issues, like bad weather delays. Pilots calling in sick due to fatigue is another reason flights are cancelled.
“It gets worse”
Passengers wait for check-in at Terminal 1 of Manchester Airport, England, on April 16, 2022. Airports across the UK are struggling to get flights going due to staff shortages.
Ioannis Alexopoulos/LNP/Shutterstock
To make matters worse, some airports, particularly in Europe, have faced similar problems. Scenes of chaos at UK airports in recent weeks have been attributed in part to staff shortages as facilities struggle to fill positions that have been streamlined during the pandemic.
It’s another portent of trouble ahead, says consumer advocate Christopher Elliott, who has been monitoring the situation in the United States and Europe Elliott, founder of the nonprofit Elliot Advocacy.
“Summer will be chaotic,” he believes – so much so that he advises his followers to avoid Europe in August, the peak of the high season.
“I think we’ve seen some delays related to the pandemic, but I think they’re burned into the equation at this point — I don’t think that’s really a legitimate excuse,” he says.
“It’s everyone’s fault but his own. If they were to take a close look in the mirror they would realize they have been downsizing and laying off staff during the pandemic and now demand has returned and they have been caught off guard. They have not been able to recruit staff quickly enough to meet demand.”
As Alaska and JetBlue cut flights, the sudden surge in people looking to buy plane tickets will tempt Covid-hit airlines to try to offset losses from the pandemic by selling seats to meet market demand.
But while numerous airlines are currently running recruitment campaigns and paying caps to sign on new pilots, there’s still the prospect that many flights simply won’t take off as planned in the coming months.
Mass Mask Confusion
A mix of masked and unmasked travelers make their way through Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia on April 19, 2022. Navigating the latest mask changes will be challenging for travelers.
Kevin Lamarque/REUTERS
For passengers hoping to make a much-needed trip after two years of restrictions, experts advise buying tickets as soon as possible so that even if the flight is cut, the airline will be responsible.
“Just book now,” says Courtney Miller, managing director of analytics at The Air Current.
“If they cancel my flight, they will have to find me a new flight; if I wait, the risk is mine,” he says.
Even as passengers board a plane, Monday’s lifting of the US government’s mask mandate on planes could create further confusion. Many airlines have now made masks optional on board, but rules will differ for international flights where face coverings may still be mandatory.
There is likely some residual uncertainty as to whether mask-wearing is advisable, as the recent decision went against a previous US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to extend the mask mandate and the situation is now under official review.
Common consensus is elusive
Medical experts can disagree on the need to cover up mid-flight.
dr Leana Wen, a professor of health policy and management at George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health, told CNN she personally will still wear a mask on planes, trains and in airports.
Broadly speaking, the chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials told CNN on Tuesday that travel mask mandates should continue — at least for a little longer until the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more data on the spread of the disease have BA.2 subvariant.
“We think that wearing masks in interstate transport is still an important intervention worth pursuing,” said Dr. Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials.
“The biggest concern is that we want people to be safe and we are concerned that we are not as far through the pandemic as people would like and (Covid-19) rates are starting again to rise,” Plescia said.
Hard ground game
People wait in line to get a vehicle at the Avis desk at the Miami International Airport Car Rental Center on April 12, 2021. Travelers may encounter long waits and sky-high prices this year as well.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Zane Kerby, president of the American Society of Travel Advisors, warns of another headache at the destination. Take car rentals, for example — another industry struggling with the post-pandemic turnaround.
“It could be worse than last year,” he warns. “There are popular destinations in the US – Honolulu, LA, South Florida – where prices have risen to incredible levels.”
Last year he was offered $3,200 for a week’s rental in Hawaii.
“I didn’t want to buy the car, just rent it,” he says.
CNN’s Gregory Wallace, Elizabeth Wolfe, Travis Caldwell, Amanda Jackson and Jacqueline Howard contributed to this story.