Suddenly Justin Trudeau wakes up: Donald Trump has a great chance of winning the American presidential election. “It won’t be easy,” he says.
In fact, barring a political disaster, Trump will win the Republican nomination. In fact, the polls give Trump a slight advantage.
A recession would be enough for the Democrats to lose not only their chance at the presidency, but also their majority in both chambers of Congress.
A few weeks ago, the respected bank UBS even warned that the United States would be hit by a recession in 2024. Historically, in the United States, ruling parties have lost elections whenever the economy was bad.
US allies must therefore prepare for Trump's likely return. A sullen, demented Trump determined to rule like a dictator.
- Listen to international political expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac's show QUB :
Don't minimize this return
Some commentators are trying to downplay the feared catastrophe. This is because Trump recognizes the problem of illegal immigration; he understands the threat of Islamism; it measures the danger of the rise of Chinese power.
This is true.
However, it is far from clear that Trump knows how to solve these problems. His solutions risk being worse than the evils he seeks to solve. How can he justify the fight against Islamism and the rapprochement of his first government with Saudi Arabia? How can he contain China when the trade deficit with this country has continued to worsen under his administration?
The dismantling of the central state and the establishment of an authoritarian state as a replacement for democracy, as demanded by Trump, would ultimately deal a fatal blow to the American economy. They would destroy what little moral authority the United States has left internationally.
Plans for Canada
What can Canada do in these circumstances?
Of course, now more than ever, Canada must maintain its friendships with the United States to curb the various isolationist trade measures that Trump advocates.
- Listen to international political expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac's show QUB :
It must strengthen its ties with other democracies on the planet, particularly economic powers such as Japan, South Korea, France, the United Kingdom and Brazil.
It also needs to strengthen its economy and its armed forces.
IF those who believe Canada is falling victim to a demographic trap due to uncontrolled immigration are right, then getting out of that trap is a priority.
As for strengthening the Canadian Armed Forces, it is becoming increasingly important, if only to be taken seriously by Trump and other major democracies.
No one knows exactly what a new Trump era would mean. However, if a hurricane is on the horizon, it's a good idea to close the shutters on the house and stock up on supplies for harsh weather.
Canada and Quebec need competent leaders more than ever.