Even in the United States, a country in a perpetual election campaign, it is too early to talk about the 2024 presidential election. Of course, it is not normal that the November 2020 election is still happening, perhaps the hangover of a longer Democracy party and history heavy . As the Jan. 6 commission harks back to the weeks elapsing between the election defeat, in which polls found two-thirds of Republican voters have yet to turn a page on suspicion of fraud, and the Capitol Hill attack, the two old rivals, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, picking the daisy with an eye on the next appointment like there aren’t two and a half years left.
In one corner is Trump, whose entourage has been slipping away for days that the former president is determined to get back into the running and that it’s just a matter of when he’s going to make his intentions public. On the other hand, President Biden, who takes the insult and disloyalty of the insinuation that he will not be ready to stand up and win the election when the time comes (a time when he will be 81 years old , compared to 78 he meets his potential opponent).
As for Trump’s reasons for going so far forward in his announcement (there’s nothing stopping him, but it’s an unwritten rule in Washington to at least wait for the general election, which is scheduled for next November), there are a number of well-known and untold reasons. Among the first: the tycoon’s desire to take advantage of the perfect storm hitting Biden. With inflation and gas consumption soaring, its popularity ratings are at rock bottom: A Tuesday poll showed 88% of Americans believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, an all-time high. Its major legislative initiatives are paralyzed in a Senate with symptoms of fire; the Supreme Court, modeled after its predecessor, pushes through a conservative agenda on issues like abortion, climate change or guns; and even where things seem to be going better, there are many potholes in the road, as in the crisis that accompanies the war in Ukraine, sparked by the arrest in Moscow of basketball player Brittney Griner, who personally appealed for help to the President in a desperate handwritten letter that arrived at the White House on Monday.
And what are Trump’s unspeakable motives? First of all, starting his career now could eliminate the possibility of an indictment over the revelations, which the bipartisan commission investigating the attack on Capitol Hill, from Congress to the Justice Department, has been slow to make for the time being. And not just because of this investigation: a grand jury from Fulton County, the county that includes Atlanta, this week subpoenaed six of his closest associates (including his attorneys Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman, and Senator Lindsey Graham, who announced this). he will contest this subpoena) as part of the investigation into the case over the pressure Trump put on Georgia state election officials and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in particular. In January 2021, the still president asked him in a famous recording to look for “11,780 votes” to certify a victory that never happened. The procedural announcement means the fence around Trump is getting tighter.
Amidst this panorama, Biden celebrates every gesture of loyalty as a triumph: A few weeks ago, he celebrated the announcement that Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders (his most serious rival in the 2020 primary, who would reach 2024 at the age of 83) invited him to Dinner at the White House. It seems clear he needs support in an increasingly uncomfortable environment. Last month, the New York Times spoke to fifty active members of the Democratic Party who agreed – most of them anonymously – that Biden shouldn’t run again. This Wednesday, CNN ran another report along the same lines, describing an “overwhelming sense of frustration” among his people in Congress at the way he’s dealing with the multiple crises piling up on him. An anonymous source defined the White House as a ship sailing “rudderless, aimless and hopeless” through the turbulent waters of issues such as abortion or the control of armed violence.
There is a feeling in Washington that he should step down to make way for a younger, more agile politician. And beyond that: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said last week that he sees “certainly possible” that Biden will face a challenger in the 2024 primary election a rosary from other governors from New Jersey (Phil Murphy) to Michigan (Gretchen Whitmer) or California, the home country of who seems best placed: Gavin Newsom.
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Newsom has recently starred in a play that has been interpreted as evidence of his presidential ambitions. The politician has paid for an advertising campaign under the slogan “Freedom is Under Attack in Your State” at Fox News affiliates in Florida to attack Ron DeSantis at home. DeSantis is the governor there and one of the Republicans who can stand up best against Trump. In his favor was the fact that, should the former president run for election, the law would limit him to one term in the White House. It is common for voters to support their presidents with the idea that they can serve two full terms, a total of eight years.
A poll of voting intentions in New Hampshire, a state that traditionally gets up early in the primary, this week gave De Santis (37%) a technical bond with Trump (39%).
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