Putin will survive, at least temporarily, the uprising of one of his key henchmen, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his mercenary militia Wagner. Most commentators marveled at the fragility of the oligarchic state that the petty dictator has been building since the early 2000s.
The Kremlin lord was forced to accept, a humiliating concession, that Prigoyine escaped trial and left Russia without firing a shot. His 24-hour mutiny had resulted in a column of his mercenaries advancing unopposed on Moscow, then turning back after a deal brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenko, a Putin stooge.
It’s hard to say how this will all end in the country with the most nuclear weapons. Putin will now feel the need to make a splash in hopes of restoring his credibility with both Russians and the international community. It could suck!
Another major nation with nuclear weapons is also facing one of the most turbulent times in its history. The instabilities to come will challenge its integrity, its democracy and the supremacy it has exercised on the planet since the end of World War II.
I am speaking of the United States and the “clear and imminent” threat Donald Trump poses to its future.
In the United States and in Russia
The question is how far Trump is willing to go to avoid ending up behind bars. First, as usual, he will try to use any legal challenge he can to delay his conviction for the numerous crimes he has committed as much as possible. He needs to buy time in hopes of being elected in 2024 and thus being able to forgive himself.
His election to the presidency is quite possible. But not sure, quite the opposite. In the event of his defeat, the situation will become extremely serious. As in 2020, his single-minded narcissism and authoritarian impulses will have Trump screaming that the Democrats stole the election to jail him. And his followers will believe him. He certainly won’t hesitate to ask her to defend him.
Trump himself and those close to him have repeatedly said any attempt to imprison him would result in serious civil unrest. He’s a former President! Look at the deference with which he was treated on both charges: no handcuffs, no ID photos.
American militias and Russian mercenaries
Let’s not forget that more than 65 million Americans ran for President, two-thirds of whom were white men. We’re talking about the country whose civilians are the most heavily armed on the planet. The man in the long red tie can count on tens of thousands of crackpots from the National Rifle Association. Also, many of the approximately 100,000 members of the 273 armed militias, which are organized in more than 40 US states, are often former military personnel who have served abroad, are well armed and well trained. Much more dangerous than the Wagner group.
The people who made it their mission to defend democracy (make the world safe for democracy) around the world now seem close to denying it at home. In my opinion, the specter of civil war haunts the United States as much, if not more than Russia, for the next few years.
