Not only are the American presidential elections taking place this month, but also in South Carolina. The Democrats are holding their first real primary there today. Then, on February 24, the Republicans will organize the primary that will confirm their candidate in the presidential race. At the end of the month we will know everything we need to know.
Let's start with the Democrats. This is the first time in decades that the Iowa caucuses and then the New Hampshire caucuses have not kicked off the presidential candidate voting season.
In 2020, Joe Biden performed poorly in these two states before enjoying spectacular success in South Carolina, winning every county and finishing nearly thirty points ahead of Bernie Sanders.
He and his entourage then concluded that Iowa and New Hampshire, with too white an electorate, no longer represented the United States of today; South Carolina and its Democratic electorate, more than half of whom were black, deserved to vote first.
Black people, still in the act?
Today's vote will be a consecration for Joe Biden as he has no credible opponent in this race. However, the vote is not lacking in interest. At the end of 2023, a major New York Times poll found that in six strategic states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – 22% of black voters planned to vote for Donald Trump.
A shock made all the more severe by the fact that Trump won only 8% of the African American electorate in 2020 and only 6% in 2016. The former president may not reach 22% support, but as Cornell Belcher, a former pollster for Barack Obama, pointed out, according to the New York Times, “the biggest fear is not that they will vote for Trump, but that they will not vote at all.” become”.
Given that in some states the margin between victory and defeat is only a fraction of the vote, demobilizing a few thousand voters could have a significant impact.
NIKKI HALEY'S HONORABLE
Nikki Haley, who finished third in Iowa and was 11 points behind Donald Trump in New Hampshire, is hoping to pull off an upset in South Carolina, a state where she was governor for six years.
Unfortunately for them, this happened before Trump entered politics. The Republican electorate is no longer the same. As proof of this, a new Washington Post poll indicates that 32% of voters would vote against him… 58% for Trump, a 26 point lead!
In detail, the numbers for the 52-year-old candidate are even more depressing: staunch Republicans – the majority in South Carolina – prefer Trump, and his supporters are much more enthusiastic.
We will therefore see this month whether Joe Biden manages to mobilize the coalition that brought him to power in 2020 – minorities, young people, women – and whether Donald Trump continues to mobilize those who are disillusioned with the system and the conservative electorate gathered around itself.
I'm telling you, it's in February that the presidential election really begins.
SOUTH CAROLINA, CONSERVATIVE AND REPUBLICAN
Free photo
Population:
Breed composition:
- 63.5% white
- 26% Black
- 6.6% Latinos
2020 presidential election:
- Trump 55.22%
- Biden 43.43%
Political representation:
- Two Republican senators
- Six Republican representatives, one Democrat
- Republican governor, continuously since 2003
Getty Images via AFP