Donald Trump appears to be distancing himself from Joe Biden in his voting intentions, with just over nine months left until November's presidential election. A new poll conducted by Ipsos for Portal shows Trump's lead over current President Biden is now six percentage points, compared to just two points a month and a half ago.
The poll, which surveyed 125 people, attributes 40% of voting intentions to Donald Trump, compared to 34% to Joe Biden. Around a quarter of those eligible to vote do not know who they will vote for or have not yet decided whether they will go to the polls on November 5th. Trump's sixpoint lead exceeds the poll's margin of error, which is 3%, and will remain the same if a third candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., enters the race for the White House. In this scenario, the advocate and antiwar activist vaccines receive 8% of the vote, taking 4% from each of the favorites (Trump appears with 36% of voting intentions and Biden with 30%).
The results show that Trump is distancing himself from the current US presidentif we take into account the December Ipsos poll for Portal (in which Biden had a twopoint lead), as well as the same company's poll published in early January, in which the candidates appeared tied (35% each). Page) .
With less than a year to go before the presidential election, Trump is gaining an advantage over Biden
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Some 67% of respondents to the survey, conducted between January 22 and 24, said they were “tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and wanted someone new.” 56% of respondents would not like to see Trump run for the US presidency again, while 70% say the same about Joe Biden.
However, it seems increasingly certain that the duel between Democrats and Republicans will take place like in 2020 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The current president's election is virtually guaranteed in the Democratic Party primaries, while Trump is the clear favorite for the Republican nomination where he faces only former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
In this opinion study published by the Portal agency, voting motivation was also assessed in connection with the rejection of the other candidate. And in this parameter 59% of Biden voters admit that their main reason for voting is opposition to Trump; On the other hand, only 39% of Trump voters admit they are voting for the former president, especially in contrast to Biden.
Despite Trump's lead in voting intentions, this indicator is not decisive in determining the winner. Unlike the elections in Portugal, in which the candidate with the highest absolute number of votes is the ultimate winner, in the United States what matters is the final composition of the electoral college, which consists of the large electorate that each candidate has in each state. The candidate with the most votes is not always the one who has the majority in the electoral college that then determines the president: in 2016, for example, Hilary Clinton had more votes than Trump, but was not elected president.