The former president's victory in this first round of the Republican primary does not mean his return to the White House is inevitable.
• Also read: A Trump consecration in 2024? Possible, but not inevitable
• Also read: What would a new Trump presidency look like?
After Monday's vote in Iowa, the media was quick to describe Donald Trump's victory as triumphant or overwhelming, with 51% of the 110,298 votes.
Some analysts even conclude that this is a first step on his inevitable path to returning to the White House. Oh, the engines!
A crushing victory?
Yes, this result confirms that Donald Trump is a clear favorite for the Republican nomination – we already knew that – but no, it's not an “overwhelming” victory and it doesn't mean he's happily heading towards victory in November.
Trump is around thirty points ahead of his closest rivals. In fact, that's more than any other faction that hasn't fielded an incumbent president since Iowa took over the primary spot in 1972.
On the other hand, Trump insists on calling himself “President Trump,” and compared to everyone who ran in Iowa with that title, his performance is the worst ever. Almost half of the participants preferred someone else. Considering that almost all of them supported Trump in 2020, that's a lot.
The boundaries of a sect
It's true that the Trumpist base in Iowa has all the hallmarks of a cult. Polls show nearly two-thirds of caucuses believe the “big lie” that the election was stolen from Trump in 2020, and a similar share would support it if he were found guilty of a crime.
But worship has its limits.
Even among those who would believe Trump's lies and forgive his crimes, there are some who prefer other candidates. Furthermore, it is far from certain that his lies and victim grievances will be as effective in the general election as they were in the primary bubble.
It's New Hampshire's turn
The importance given to the Iowa caucuses is disproportionate to their actual importance.
Since 1972, only three presidents have been elected in Iowa after winning disputed elections: Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. This state is very unrepresentative of the American electorate. There are few visible minorities, below-average education and a high proportion of evangelical Christians, a group strongly aligned with Trump.
We'll know more about the Republican race after next Tuesday's vote in New Hampshire, where Nikki Haley is on an upward trajectory and her victory remains unlikely but not unimaginable.
As for Ron DeSantis, he will not recover from his defeat in Iowa, where he made huge investments in 2023 only to see his support inexorably melt away.
If Trump wins, his supporters and apologists—not to mention those who systematically underestimate his Democratic opponent—will certainly overstate the significance of that victory. If Nikki Haley pulls off the upset, Trump will obviously invoke fraud and the knives will be deep leading up to Super Tuesday on March 5th.