Exactly one year before the US presidential elections, the swords of Damocles hang over the two adversaries.
In exactly one year, the US will elect its president and, depending on your perspective, 2024 will be the most boring or turbulent US election year in decades. Boring because it all boils down to a rematch of the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and the primaries in both parties are probably just a formality. Turbulent because Trump faces lawsuits and Biden faces his old age.
A former president challenges his successor: you have to go back a century and a half in US history to find a similar duel. In 1892, Democrat Grover Cleveland ran against Republican Benjamin Harrison and actually came back. Similar to Trump in 2020, Cleveland was the first incumbent in decades to be denied a second term by Americans.
While incumbents traditionally do not have to fear competition in the primaries that begin in January 2024, this time the opposition party selection process also appears to be a mere formality. There is also a president in the race, Trump. In current polls, the scandal-plagued right-wing populist is at 59 percent, a respectable distance from second-place Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 13 percent. Observers do not expect much change in this regard. Until now, the legal proceedings have served Trump to bind his supporters even more firmly to him.
Three years ago, Biden won a landslide victory against Trump in an election overshadowed by the social and economic consequences of the pandemic. The Democrat not only won back the former industrial strongholds of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, but also managed to flip the conservative southern states of Georgia and Arizona. Nationwide, the challenger was eight million votes ahead of the incumbent, with a massive increase in voter turnout. Three years later, Biden adorns himself with all kinds of statistics that supposedly prove economic success. But high inflation is also causing problems for Americans, which is why the president’s popularity ratings are in the basement. Just under 42% of Americans have a positive opinion of the Biden administration, while 55% view it negatively.
Current polls show a stalemate between Biden and Trump, with the Republican recently increasingly in the lead. However, experts warn against underestimating Biden and point to the 2022 midterm elections. Contrary to polls, the Democrats managed to achieve respectable success and expand their majority in the Senate because many moderate voters were discouraged by the radicalization of the Republicans under the Trump government. influence. This could also be Biden’s recipe for success in the 2024 elections.
Of course, there is also a huge sword of Damocles hanging over the holder, namely that of his health. When he took office in January 2021, the Democrat was by far the oldest US president in history, at 78 years old; At the beginning of his second term he would already be 82 years old. According to an NBC News poll, 68% of Americans “care” about Biden’s physical and mental health.
A radical escalation in one of Trump’s lawsuits or a massive deterioration in Biden’s health problems could completely reshuffle the electoral campaign’s cards. Both Republicans and Democrats.