Trump wins but loses a little

Trump wins, but loses a little

Every victory by Donald Trump in the primaries and caucuses creates the impression that he is a steamroller.

The mention of a dominant victory triggers panic among those who, in the United States or elsewhere, fear for democracy and the stability of relations with the partners of this troubled and fragile American giant.

impregnable Trump

Regardless of the results that Nikki Haley achieved in New Hampshire, only the courts or a historic performance (do you believe in a miracle?) by the Republican candidate will deprive us of this second duel that almost no one wants.

We have known for years that Trump knew better than anyone how to bring together the disaffected, the anti-establishment voters and many conservatives associated with the far right.

The “Trump coalition” is imposing its rhythm on the Republican Party, and it is they who are tirelessly advocating for the triumphs of the 45th president. They will be there on November 5, 2024.

A passion that hides another reality

Despite the failures of 2020 and 2022, these voters want to give Trump another chance and hope to repeat the perfect storm of 2016.

However, the accounting reality is more complex. Even if Joe Biden does not inspire enthusiasm, for many he remains the solution to the lesser evil. Assuming there are no independent parties or candidates dividing the vote, the Republican candidate must overcome a significant obstacle: his extremism.

The analysis of the results of the caucuses in Iowa confirmed what several polls had already shown. As much as Trump is popular with a certain constituency, many Republicans and independents are determined to overthrow him.

According to an NBCNews/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, nearly half of Nikki Haley's supporters would support Biden if their candidate were defeated. Without being able to immediately analyze the results in New Hampshire, many anti-Trump voters told members of the media the same thing.

If this data doesn't stop him from going on his merry way for now, it will be crucial in the presidential campaign.

Yes, Trump enjoys constant media coverage and no one knows who he is anymore. This is exactly the crux of the problem. In 2016, he was able to seduce in the role of the anti-establishment underdog that we wanted to give a chance. Now that we know his past and he has become more radical in his attacks, he is scary.

Other surveys indicate a pushback effect from Donald Trump's candidacy. ABC News' report from the final quarter of 2023 highlighted the fragility of his support among independents, while the New York Times/Siena report indicated that Biden's support among those same independents was greater than his rival's.

Once again we are in for a close election, the outcome of which will be determined by voter mobilization in a few states. Biden retains a more than fair shot at a second term, and you now know why he's sticking with it.