Financial Times
On November 19, 1919, the United States Senate rejected the Treaty of Versailles. With this decision, the United States withdrew its power to maintain the agreements reached after the First World War, leaving this task to the British and French, who had neither the will nor the means to do so.
The Second World War followed. After this conflict, the United States played a much more productive role. Today, in many ways, the world is still the one the United States created.
But how long will this continue to be the case? And what could follow? The outcome of the next presidential election in the country could not only answer these questions decisively, but unfortunately also very poorly.
Recent polls suggest that nearly 55% of American voters disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance. Estimates also suggest Trump is slightly ahead of the current president in headtohead polls ahead of the election, which is a year away.
Finally, they suggest that Trump is ahead of Biden in five of the six key states. Overall, a Trump victory is clearly and disturbingly plausible.
What would that mean? The most important answer is that the United States, not only the most powerful democracy in the world but also the country that saved it in the 20th century, no longer feels bound by democratic norms.
The most basic norm is that power must be won in free and fair elections. Whether the US presidential elections are “fair” is controversial. But they have rules. The current president’s efforts to repeal these rules amount to an insurrection. That Trump tried to do this is undeniable.
There is also no evidence of fraud to support his coup attempt. He is rightly accused. However, he can still win a presidential election. One of the reasons he is able to do this is because nearly 70% of people who identify as Republicans say they believe his lies. This is shocking, but unfortunately not that surprising.
What would another Trump presidency mean for the United States other than supporting a man who tried to overthrow the Constitution?
Obviously, the answer would depend in part on the record in Congress. However, it would be wrong to take additional comfort from your behavior last time. So he had very traditional military and business personalities. Next time it will be different. “Maga” [movimento Make America Great Again, dos apoiadores de Trump] It is now a cult with a significant number of followers.
A key Trump domestic policy plan is to replace career civil servants with staff loyal to the president. The excuse is the alleged existence of a “deep state,” by which critics mean knowledgeable career civil servants whose loyalty is to the law and the state rather than to the person in power.
This is questionable, among other things, because a modern government cannot function without these people. The main reason for this is that we will have an autocracy when the Secret Service, Internal Security and Internal Revenue Service, the Army, the FBI and the Justice Department are subordinate to the whims of the head of state.
Yes, it’s that simple. With a vengeful head of state, abuse of power can be rampant. That wouldn’t be the USA we know. It could be more like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary or even Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey.
What could this mean for the world?
Most obviously, America’s acceptance of a man and a party that openly rejects the central norm of liberal democracy would discourage those who believe in it and embolden despots and their lackeys everywhere. The impact of such a U.S. betrayal is difficult to overstate.
Mixing this desperation with Trump’s professed transactional approach would weaken, if not destroy, the trust on which current US alliances are based. The Americans rightly criticize the free riding of most allies.
Above all, there is no doubt that Europeans (including the UK) need to do more. But the Alliance needs a leader. For the foreseeable future, the United States must take the lead.
As Russia threatens Europe and China as an equal competitor, alliances are becoming more important than ever not only for their allies, but also for the United States. Trump neither understands nor cares.
Added to this are the effects on the global economy. Trump proposes imposing a 10% tariff on all imports. This would be a contemporary (if milder) version of the infamous SmootHawley Tariff of 1930. It would certainly lead to retaliation. It would also do great damage to the WTO (World Trade Organization) if the US’s decadeslong commitments to reduce tariff barriers were rejected.
Equally important will likely be the impact on efforts to combat climate change. The US would likely roll back many measures in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. It is also likely that the USA will withdraw from efforts to promote investments in clean energy in emerging and developing countries.
Relations with China must also be questioned. Here the changes may not be as dramatic, as hostility to China’s growth is bipartisan. But opposition to China would have less to do with ideology under Trump, who doesn’t care about these differences between autocracies and democracies. He prefers the former.
This would become a power struggle in which Trump would try to put America first. How that would change is still unclear. Trump could try to turn Russia against China, just as Nixon did with China against the Soviet Union. Ukraine’s abandonment could be their bait.
A second Trump term may not ruin America forever. But both he and the rest of the world would lose their innocence. We would have to adjust to the reality that the United States reelected a man who openly sought to undermine its democracy. It’s possible that the allegations against Trump will save the day. But this fragile hope highlights the current threat to democracy.