Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opens talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul.
Photo: Agency AFP
From the Topkapi Palace, the administrative seat of the powerful sultans of the Ottoman Empire in the 15th century, very close to the Hagia Sophia Mosque, you have an incomparable view of the Bosphorus: from the front to the Asian side of Istanbul and from there what many What might have escaped tourists’ notice in February was the fact that these waters were the harbingers of what would soon become the western nightmare: Russian warships and submarines passed through the Bosphorus en route to the Black Sea. The goal? attack Ukraineeven from the sea.
From the Russian invasion to Ukraine The panorama was also complicated for the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “For Turkey, a NATO member that has performed a delicate balancing act between Kyiv and Moscow, the war forced him to make some difficult decisions,” Jeffrey Mankoff, a researcher at the US National Defense University, told Foreign Policy. And we could start with Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s decision to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles to Russian warships, a measure that involved enforcing the war clauses of the 1936 Montreux Convention, which regulates maritime traffic in the Turkish Straits. “An important symbolic decision in support of Ukraine,” an expert told the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
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But for some analysts, this would be the perfect opportunity for Erdogan (especially with the 2023 presidential elections approaching): “Turkey’s case is interesting because it has good relations with both parties to the conflict. This allows him to play in a mediation space that, to some extent, corresponds to Erdogan’s interest in positioning Turkey as an important and autonomous country at the international level,” said Angélica Alba, professor at Turkey Newspaper’s Institute of International Relations, Javeriana University.
Similarly, Jeffrey Mankoff commented: “Turkish support for Ukraine is not only about containing the expansion of Russian power, but also about showing Washington and its other NATO allies that Turkey remains a reliable partner that has a role to play.” has to play in collective defense,” said the expert.
Similarly, a new round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia took place this Tuesday in Istanbul; Both delegations met before meeting President Erdogan. And it seems that the talks have made initial progress: Russia announced that it would “radically” reduce its military activities near Kyiv and Chernihiv and even claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin could meet his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy ( although the announcement was met with skepticism by the US).
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But this mediating role doesn’t mean Erdogan doesn’t need to act cautiously, as Russia and Turkey have been rivals in different geographic areas, and it’s enough to go back a few years to refresh our memory.
“In the Caucasus, we saw how Turkey supported Azerbaijan Russia support of Armenia. Not to mention the fall of the war in Syria: it is very clear that Russia’s support was important Bashar al Assad, because somehow the Russian attacks helped him stay in power. While Turkey has always been an adversary and had a very difficult relationship with the Syrian regime,” Alba added. A scenario that columnist Asli Aydintasbas also recalled to the Washington Post: “Turkey and Russia They are historical rivals and have fought on opposite sides in the conflicts in Libya and Syria. In fact, Erdogan’s Russian romance died after Russian and Syrian planes killed 34 Turkish soldiers in Idlib, Syria, two years ago.”
But that’s not why Turkey is ready to sever ties with Putin. “Both countries’ relations are crucial, even more so for Turkey, as there is still energy dependency, particularly in relation to gas supplies from Moscow to Ankara. In addition, there is a fragile domestic political situation for the Turks, especially after an economic and leadership crisis, partly after the pandemic. Any move related to Erdogan’s imposition of sanctions on Russia, for example, will have a huge impact on Turkey’s domestic politics,” researcher Yevgeniya Gaber told the Atlantic Council.
Here are some key facts on the subject: Turkey is a net importer of oil and gas. According to data from the US International Trade Administration, the country imports about 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. In 2020, Russia accounted for 33.59% of natural gas imports, Iran 11.06%, and Azerbaijan 24%. , with the rest of the natural gas coming from LNG imports.
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We should also not forget about Erdogan’s purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. As Jeffrey Mankoff explains, some voices in Turkey’s political and military circles would like to go further, “considering that Russia’s pursuit of a non-Western security order in Eurasia is preferable to continued reliance on NATO,” the expert said. Alba added that Erdogan decided to diversify his country’s foreign policy after the EU’s reluctance to include Turkey in the bloc: “And not only Russia is entering this diversification scenario, Ankara is also striving for leadership in the Middle East from a political point of view East on,” the analyst said.
But in this scenario we must not ignore relations with Ukraine. In general, Turkey has supported the territorial integrity of this country. In fact, Erdogan condemned the annexation of Crimea, and as experts from the Council on Foreign Relations explain, the Turkish leader has sided with the Crimean Tatars, an ethnic Turkish group that has suffered under Russian rule.
A similar statement was made by Angélica Alba: “The end of the Cold War changed many of the dynamics that existed up to then, including Turkey’s relations with the former Soviet republics. It is interesting because a large part of these areas are majority Turkish, speak Turkish languages and share various historical and cultural characteristics to varying degrees. And Turkey has tried to create some kind of closeness on this basis of identity, and although it cannot compete with the tradition of Russia in relation to these areas, it has tried to open a space,” the expert commented.
Not to mention that Ankara has supplied Ukraine with armed drones, “the crown jewel of Turkey’s defense industry,” as columnist Asli Aydintasbas put it. Fact: Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones are deadly and have been used in Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. Now they were used by the Ukrainian troops to stop the Russian advance.
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Added to this is the economic cooperation between the two countries: Turkey and Ukraine signed a free trade agreement on the eve of the Russian invasion after bilateral trade grew by almost 50% in the first nine months of 2021, according to the leaders of both countries , will allow the annual trading volume to grow to over $10,000 million. “Let’s say at the end that Turkey takes the European position in the end, but also has no interest in alienating Russia,” Alba commented.
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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted that Moscow’s pushback announcement could be an attempt to divert attention. “There’s what Russia says and what Russia does, and we’re focusing on the latter,” the official said. “If they somehow believe that an attempt to subdue only the eastern part of Ukraine or the southern part of Ukraine can be successful, then they are once again deeply mistaken,” he added.
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And the Kremlin announced last week that it would focus its offensive on “liberating” the Donbas in the east of the country. The New York Times, in turn, reported that Russian mercenaries with combat experience in Syria and Libya were preparing for battle in eastern Ukraine. In fact, hours before the talks, according to the Washington Post, Russian troops attacked an oil depot in western Ukraine on Monday night. And they attacked a local administration building in Mykolaiv, killing at least nine people, according to Zelenskyy.
That’s key, because as Jeffrey Mankoff mentions, the more the conflict grows, the less leeway Erdogan will have. In other words, as the war affects relations with both countries (and drives up energy prices), “the Turkish economy, which is already experiencing over 50% inflation, will feel the impact,” CFR analysts said.
For the time being, Ukraine’s negotiators have stipulated that if the country adopts this position of neutrality, its security must be guaranteed by a group of countries, including the US, Turkey, China and Poland, to a degree similar to the NATO principle. which states that “an attack on one is an attack on all”.