But what game is Turkey playing? Recep Tayyip Erdogan said yesterday that he was not positive about Finland and Sweden joining NATO. In his opinion, admitting these two countries to NATO would amount to repeating a mistake, that of Greece joining the organisation.
A comparison of Greece with Finland and Sweden does not bode well. Because Greeks and Turks hate each other. Also, Erdogan adds, both countries host members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Here we are. Turkey is suspected of genocide in Kurdistan. Erdogan is therefore trying to break the Swedes and Finns’ support for the Kurds against his support for the two countries to join NATO
1. Can Erdogan block the candidacy of Sweden and Norway alone?
In theory, Erdogan can block the two countries from joining NATO. But Erdogan is playing a dangerous game. His administration previously broke an unspoken convention of the alliance. It bought Russian-made S-400 missiles instead of buying missiles from other NATO countries. In addition to the NATO armaments compatibility issues these missiles pose, it is clear that Turkey is in a delicate situation of dependency on Russia. A situation that would be untenable in the event of an open conflict between NATO and Russia.
2. Is Turkey playing its role in NATO well?
Turkey played its role as an ally well, preventing Russian warships from crossing the Bosphorus when war broke out in Ukraine. Turkey is a very important player in the NATO system. Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly distant from other European countries by its leaders. First, Erdogan is a step-by-step Islamist who doesn’t share the same values as other European countries. Then Erdogan dreams of rebuilding the Turkish empire. In a way, he doesn’t dislike Putin’s methods of territorial annexation, quite the opposite.
3. Who are the Kurds?
The Kurdish world population is difficult to grasp. There are approximately 40 million Kurds in the world, including almost 20 million in Turkey, 10 million in Iran, 7 in Iraq and 3 in Syria. Sweden would have 85,000 and Finland 15,000. The Kurds have often fallen victim to shared borders. They are largely responsible for the defeat of the Islamic State in the Middle East. But their courage did not bring them a truly independent country. They are being persecuted in Turkey by Erdogan and his supporters, who accuse them of separatism and terrorism. A small part of the Kurdish population actually supports terrorist actions.
4. How are Kurds treated in Turkey?
Kurds are treated as second class citizens. Hatred of the Kurds is rooted in the political program of Erdogan and his party. The Kurdish question in Finland and Sweden could even become an issue in the next election campaign, since Erdogan has lost a lot of support among his voters.
5. How is the relationship between Vladimir Putin and Erdogan?
Relations between the two men seem excellent, especially since Turkey has decided to buy Russian arms. But Erdogan, like many other leaders, doesn’t want to get too attached to a loser.
