Ali Cem Deniz
Hardly any other country is as badly affected by the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as Turkey. Rumors of a shortage of sunflower oil sparked stormy scenes in Turkish supermarkets in the first weeks of the war. Because Turkey imports many staple foods from both Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, she is professionally active herself in both countries. Turkey is the largest foreign investor in Ukraine. The war is therefore a catastrophe for the Turkish economy, which has been weakening for years and struggling with high inflation.
Old allies
Turkey has a historically developed close relationship with Ukraine. Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Ukraine’s independence in 1991. The Ukrainian Crimean Tatar minority speaks Turkish and many of them live in Turkey. In turn, many young people from Turkey go to Ukraine to study. Thousands of them had to be evacuated from cities such as Kharkiv at the beginning of the war.
Ukraine and Turkey also cooperate militarily. Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian army has fought very effectively against Russian tanks using Turkish drones. Both countries have traditionally tense relations with Russia. The Ottoman Empire and the Tsarist Empire were enemies for centuries, Turkey joined NATO in 1952 to protect itself from a possible attack by Stalin.
Complicated relationship
The whole world is currently debating whether a no-fly zone in Ukraine could lead to a world war. It has been forgotten that Turkey recently shot down a Russian fighter. The shooting down of the Russian SU-24 already in 2015 sparked fears of World War III. There has been no escalation, but relations between the two countries have reached a low point. Just a year later, Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, was murdered. Russia responded with severe economic sanctions. Since then, Turkey has been trying to mend relations with Russia.
And it seems to be working, even though the two countries remain on opposite sides in the conflicts in Syria and Libya. This is due not only to the fact that Western countries have withdrawn from these conflicts. Russia and Turkey are the only regional forces that have lagged behind and are practically forced to cooperate with each other. Interdependence is also increasing. Although Turkey is dependent on Russian gas, Turkey is also a very important market for Russia. No country can afford direct conflict.
Desperate attempts at reconciliation
Turkey now wants to use this connection with Russia to mediate in the war. Two weeks ago, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Antalya. The talks were fruitless, but this was the only high-level diplomatic meeting since the beginning of the war. The Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs announced further negotiations in Turkey.
The longer the war lasts, the more severe the consequences for an already weakened Turkish economy. And despite the good relations between Putin and Erdogan, it is not known how long Russia will tolerate the Turkish position. So far, Turkey is not on the well-known Russian list of “hostile countries”. If the war escalates, Turkey as a NATO member will have to take a stance against Russia.
Finally, Turkey, isolated in recent years in foreign policy, wants to signal to the West that it is an important player in this region. Turkey will therefore continue to actively pursue a swift end to the war in Ukraine as Erdogan has a lot at stake.