San Diego State has a donut in losses in two contests, but the wins haven’t been very convincing. Now that a hungry UCLA team is in town, our college football picks are expecting a loss to the Aztecs.
Week 2 on the college football odds board is packed with great games from top to bottom. After a series of mostly uninteresting encounters outside of the conference in week 1, the tide has turned just a week later.
A thrilling duel in the West featured Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins and Brady Hoke’s San Diego State Aztecs meeting at Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday night.
Despite the 2-0 record, the Aztecs didn’t look particularly promising early in the year and could be in for a nasty surprise from the visiting Bruins, who have had a week to familiarize themselves with their quarterback competition.
Will the Pac-12 continue its dominance over the Mountain West this season? See my answers to these questions and more in my full college football picks for UCLA vs. San Diego State on Saturday, September 9th.
UCLA vs. San Diego State best odds
UCLA vs. San Diego State tips and predictions
I’ve been less than impressed with SDSU so far. First, the Aztecs struggled to hold their own against Ohio, even though the Bobcats lost star quarterback Kurtis Rourke early in the contest. SDSU still had a 390-318 lead and the outcome of the game will likely be different if Rourke stays healthy and his backup doesn’t throw three picks. The Bobcats still managed nine more first downs than the Aztecs (25 to 16).
Back then, the Aztecs were the 34-point favorite over the Idaho State Bengals but had more penalty yards (138 on 14 penalties) than pass yards (87) in a sloppy 36-28 win. Cover your eyes when they attack.
This handicap carries a degree of uncertainty since UCLA has not settled on a starting quarterback. Fourth-year player Ethan Garbers was given the starting XI in the opening game but looked completely lost as he made 10-for-17 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions with an AY/A of just 3.0. Dante Moore, a true five-star freshman, came on as a relief and looked superb. He threw for 143 yards on just 12 attempts (11.5 AY/A) with two touchdowns and one interception.
It seems obvious who should start and get the vast majority of reps, but it’s unclear who will actually do so. Kelly is notoriously tight-lipped and doesn’t give the media a glimpse of his actual plans, but it’s obvious to me that he has little faith in Garbers considering the veteran won the starting XI simply because “somebody take the first snap.” must”. That’s hardly a convincing endorsement.
Kelly definitely knows how to coach offense, and Moore seems like the real quarterback. It will help to have a strong running back duo on hand in Carson Steele and TJ Harden to do the heavy lifting, and Cal transfer J. Michael Sturdivant looks like an early NFL draft pick.
A lot of people will probably look at this broadly and believe it’s broad. SDSU plays at home and usually keeps games close together right? How often do the Aztecs lose by two touchdowns? Well, they played two Pac-12 teams a year ago and lost to Arizona 38-20 and Utah 35-7.
This is not the same team we saw in 2021 going 12-2, including a 2-0 record against the Pac-12. I still have a lot of questions about offense, and while the defense is still good, it’s probably not as elite as it was a year ago considering most of the key players are gone now.
The Pac-12s were the butt of jokes earlier this season, but with a 13-0 start to the season, they turned the tables and, I think, were grossly underrated by top-half teams in a high-profile conference in 2023 .
This is a game that UCLA should win with relative ease. Hopefully Kelly doesn’t try the Garbers experiment much longer and lets this offensive cook under her general of the present and future.
My best choice: UCLA -13.5 (-122 on FanDuel)
Same game between UCLA and San Diego State
UCLA -13.5
SDSU team overall under 17.5
This SGP is a two-legger that is my best bet on UCLA vs. the spread.
I add SDSU to go below his team total of 17.5 for the second leg. Offensively, the Aztecs have been a total disappointment in two games so far under new offensive coordinator Ryan Lindley. QB Jalen Mayden, who came out of safety a year ago, has led a passing attack that only carried 249 yards through the air — far short of the 601 pass yards they allowed opponents.
I’m not sure what the Aztecs are supposed to believe in offensively. They may not be able to run the ball consistently after UCLA’s front looked so good under Lynn in Week 1. The Bruins are most vulnerable through the air, where they ranked 114th in passing success rate a year ago, but SDSU doesn’t have the weapons in the passing attack to make them count.
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UCLA vs. San Diego State Spread and Over/Under Analysis
There is a little variation in the market for this line so be sure to do some research before placing your bet. Most books will show UCLA -14.5, but at the time of writing -13.5 is also available. Every point counts!
I think there is clear evidence that San Diego State is no longer an elite Group 5 team after finishing 7-6 a year ago and losing most of the key defensive players who led the way.
UCLA also lost many key figures, except on offense. Kelly reloaded that side of the ball brilliantly — Moore looks like truth at QB, Sturdivant will be a national star by season’s end, Steele is a bowlingball workhorse, and Harden might be the most electrifying player of them all.
The overall score started at 48.5 and has since increased to 49.5 in most locations, although some moved slower than others.
If I’m going for the total, I’d be more likely to look at the under, just considering how abysmal SDSU’s offense has been through two games. The offensive line struggled last year, ranking 119th in line yards and 125th in stuff rate. Things are looking difficult again this year as the two best options from a year ago are no longer on the roster.
Kelly hasn’t shown any inclination to worry too much about non-conference games, and while I expect his offense to be able to move the ball in this matchup, I’m unlikely to expect any fireworks against an Aztecs defense that’s ranked sixth in this game EPA ranked No. 1 per play a year ago and has limited opponents to 4.5 yards per play so far.
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UCLA vs San Diego State betting trend worth knowing
The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in September. Find more college football betting trends for UCLA vs. San Diego State.
Information about the game UCLA vs. San Diego State
| Location: | Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California |
| Date: | Saturday, September 9, 2023 |
| Begin: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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