Ukraine and Russia are making “significant” progress towards agreeing on a ceasefire and troop withdrawal through a 15-point draft peace agreement.
According to the document, Kyiv agrees to neutrality and accepts restrictions on its armed forces in order to stop the barbaric attacks by Putin’s forces on civilians.
It will also lead Volodymyr Zelensky to abandon his NATO ambitions and promise not to host Western military bases or weapons in exchange for protection.
Sources briefed on the talks told the Financial Times that another provision includes securing Russian language rights in Ukraine.
But the biggest stumbling block remains Russia’s insistence that Ukraine recognize the annexation of Crimea and the independence of Lugansk and Donetsk.
Putin insists that the entire Donbas must secede from Ukraine, not just parts of it occupied by pro-Moscow rebel forces prior to the outbreak of hostilities.
Ukraine and Russia are making “significant” progress on agreeing to a ceasefire and troop withdrawal through a 15-point draft peace agreement.
The proposals were first discussed in full on Monday, with both sides saying progress has been made.
But Ukrainian officials are skeptical that Putin will abide by the terms of the agreement, and the Kremlin could buy time to regroup before a new offensive.
A Ukrainian source briefed on the talks said: “There is a possibility that this is a hoax and an illusion. They lie about everything – about Crimea, and about the buildup of troops on the border, and about the “hysteria” about the invasion.
“We need to put pressure on them until they have no other choice,” they added.
But a Russian source said the proposed settlement could give both sides an opportunity to declare victory in the brutal war.
Zelensky’s adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said any deal would include the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine captured since the beginning of the invasion.
Despite the positive signs, Ukraine today rejected Russia’s plan to become “neutral” like Sweden or Austria.
Kyiv said any deal would need to include security guarantees from “international partners” who would agree to stand up for Ukraine in the event it was attacked again.
Podolyak said the international community should not be allowed “to stand aside in the event of an attack on Ukraine, as is happening today” if hostilities resume.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today confirmed that neutrality is central as Moscow and Kyiv are “close to agreeing” on the wording of the agreement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that parts of a possible peace deal with Ukraine were close to being agreed after Kyiv agreed to discuss neutrality.
Ukraine (President Volodymyr Zelensky, pictured) on Wednesday demanded assurances that international forces would “prevent attacks” in the future and rejected Russia’s proposal that Kyiv become “neutral” like Austria or Sweden.
What is the “Austrian model” of neutrality?
In 1955, Austria signed the Moscow Memorandum, an agreement with the Soviet Union that guaranteed the preservation of neutrality, which had just re-established itself as a sovereign state after World War II.
As part of the deal, Vienna wrote into its new constitution that it would not join any military alliances or station foreign forces on its territory, nor would it declare or participate in wars or invasions.
The agreement has since been amended to allow Austria to join the UN and send troops to “peacekeeping” missions ordered by the Security Council, such as the 1990-1991 Iraq-Kuwait conflict.
In 1995, Austria became part of NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, allowing it to contribute to the NATO peacekeeping force, although it signed up only after Russia joined.
Austria has also joined the EU, whose treaties do include a common defense policy, although it is not active and would require a unanimous vote of the European Council to activate it.
Austria’s neutrality was a Soviet precondition for granting the country, which had been occupied by Allied forces since the end of World War II, its sovereignty.
It was based on the Swiss model of neutrality, dating back to the Peace of Westphalia in 1640, and accurately reflects a similar historical agreement in place in Sweden.
Finland, which directly borders Russia and fought the Soviets in the run-up to World War II, is another European country committed to neutrality in a pact with the USSR signed in 1948, the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance.
As with the Austrian model, Finland’s neutrality agreement forbids entering into military alliances deemed hostile to Russia, stationing foreign troops on its territory, or allowing an attack on Russia to pass through its territory.
Summing up the peace talks on the Russian side, one senior official told Reuters that there was “a small chance for a peaceful settlement,” adding: “Something will be decided in the next three days to a week.”
Another senior Russian source said Putin was open to considering making peace on Russia’s terms and that there was room for some kind of deal.
But officials came amid warnings from British and American intelligence that the Kremlin also intends to move reinforcements to the front lines to free up combat forces for more attacks.
This means that Putin, who before the invasion declared on state television that Ukraine had no right to exist as a country, could also seek to continue the war to unite Ukraine and Russia under one banner.
News of the impending deal came a day after Zelenskiy said his country had to agree not to become a NATO member. This is a key Russian demand that was used to justify the Kremlin’s decision to attack.
The parties held several rounds of negotiations aimed at finding common ground and ending hostilities, launched by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in late February.
The last fight ended late on Tuesday evening, with Kyiv pointing out “fundamental contradictions” in the positions of the delegations.
Both sides had previously pinned hopes for a breakthrough, citing agreements that were close to being implemented and signed.
Lavrov on Wednesday warned that the talks would not be easy, but there was “some hope of reaching a compromise.”
Russia’s negotiator, Medinsky, repeated to reporters Wednesday that the talks were “slow and difficult” but said the Kremlin wanted peace “as soon as possible.”
He reiterated that the main issue in the talks is a “neutral” Ukraine, citing the status of Austria and Sweden as possible role models.
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, this would mean that Ukraine could keep its military, but Kiev would not be allowed to have any foreign bases.
“There are a number of issues being discussed related to the size of the Ukrainian army,” Medinsky said, having previously mentioned that the parties are discussing the idea of a future Ukraine with a smaller, non-aligned army.
Sweden is not officially a militarily ally in peacetime and neutral in war, ending its policy of neutrality in 1992 at the end of the Cold War. It is not a member of NATO, but has been a partner of the alliance for almost 30 years.
At the end of the Cold War, Sweden reduced its military spending, but began to reinvest in its defense after Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.
Meanwhile, Medinsky said other issues were being discussed, including the status of the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, and territories held for years by pro-Moscow separatists.
Lavrov on Wednesday said the priority list included the security of people in eastern Ukraine, the demilitarization of Ukraine, and the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials also made cautious positive statements about the state of the peace talks. Zelenskiy on Wednesday called the talks “more realistic” but warned that more time would be needed for any deal to be in Ukraine’s interests.
Zelenskiy made the announcement early this morning after his team said a peace deal that would end the Russian invasion of Ukraine would be reached with Vladimir Putin within one or two weeks because Russian forces would run out of fresh troops and supplies by then. .
Moscow’s leading negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky (left), said his delegation is pushing for Ukraine to receive a status comparable to Sweden or Austria. But Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Mykhailo Podoliak (right), said he wants international forces to guarantee the country’s security.
The apparent breakthrough came a day after Zelenskiy confirmed that Ukraine would not join NATO.
Speaking on Tuesday, he said that “for years we have heard that the doors are open, but we have also heard that we cannot join.” This is true and needs to be acknowledged.”
On the eve of the invasion, Putin demanded guarantees that Ukraine would never be accepted into NATO, as well as the withdrawal of all the alliance’s troops and weapons from the former Soviet countries.
Rebuffed by Kyiv, Washington and NATO, Putin said he had no choice but to launch a military operation as Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population was being genocide by “nationalists and neo-Nazis” following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Russian negotiators have since softened their stance a bit, saying they want Ukraine to declare neutrality, disarm, recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and recognize the entire Donbas as independent.