Winter has slowed the wide-ranging operations but hasn’t stopped the carnage. Very tough battle for Bakhmut and in the eastern region | The military point | 318
The long war marches along three axes: the land fronts at or near stalemate; long-distance duels with bomb attacks; the supply chain.
Winter has slowed the wide-ranging operations but hasn’t stopped the carnage. The battle for Bakhmut and in the eastern region was very fierce. Wagner tries to break through with reservists, mercenaries, ex-convicts as cannon fodder. And the cannons devour them. Ukrainians are attempting a counter-attack to take control of crossroads, taking their toll in lives. Observers continue to predict an imminent Ukrainian advance towards Melitopol and track the movements of the invaders with hypotheses about a resumption of an attack from the north or even with the participation of Belarus. We’re on the scenarios with lots of variables and few confirmations.
Then there is the expectation of two components: the weight of the Kremlin-mandated mobilization (who knows if there might not be a second one), the role of the new units in Kyiv being trained by NATO in parallel with the arrival of new armaments. In particular, armored vehicles, other artillery and an anti-aircraft shield. In return, Vladimir Putin, speaking with his generals, promised new resources for the army through the use of other hypersonic devices and those destined for the nuclear arsenal, such as the Satan II commitment, accompanied by the publicly expressed will used in the invasion to correct errors that have occurred. Therefore, we consider the spring as a testing ground and insist on how high the ammunition stocks of both sides are. The tsar’s depots – so the refrain goes – are quickly emptied, the average shot has fallen from 60,000 to 20,000 rounds per day, but production is still sufficient to meet demand for the time being.
Ukrainians are insisting on the devastating action of the Himars rocket launchers, as evidenced by the deaths of dozens (or hundreds) of Russians in Makiivka barracks. The episode is the synthesis of good intelligence, effective systems, and gross recklessness on the part of officers who have concentrated men and equipment at a single point. Also of interest is an incursion, perhaps by drone, in the Russian town of Klimovsky near the border, which caused a power outage. Kyiv remains under pressure. The raids on inhabited areas follow one another, power outages are inevitable. In recent occupier strikes, according to the New York Times, Iran’s Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles and S300 anti-aircraft missiles were deployed in pairs (which has happened before) for “land” duties, an indirect indicator of reduced availability of cruise ships.
Here, too, opinions differ: Zelenskyy’s officers say the enemy has a reduced number of missiles, but they continue to “shoot” them, and experts warn not to underestimate Moscow. The Russians again relied on the Shahed on Monday, a 39-salvo the Ukrainians claim they shot down. Under these conditions, the resistance reacts by pursuing military but also propaganda goals. Any flash on Russian soil can serve to counter the Kremlin’s narrative – we’re winning – while the destruction of a major post far from the front line makes the enemy fearful and fuels the wrath of the “hawks”, always dissatisfied with the leadership of the Russia’s are conflict.
January 3, 2023 (change January 3, 2023 | 10:17 am)
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