Split
According to several observers, the Kremlin aims to maintain a kind of status quo in Ukraine. One of the signs of this would be a willingness to accept a wheat deal. The Western Himars no longer allowed Russian artillery to predominate, and this tends to prevent even the small conquests that the invading army has hitherto been able to make in the Donbass, at the cost of the almost complete destruction of towns and villages.
There is a risk. If a status quo somehow stabilized with Russia ruling the Kherson region, Mariupol region and the entire Luhansk region, the eventual reconquest (which would be legitimate from the point of view of international law) by the Ukrainians could be viewed unfavorably in the West. Many would say: “Right now that there is some kind of ceasefire, does Ukraine want to start fighting again?”. Many would blame Ukraine for continuing the war. They would add themselves to those who have been doing this for some time and do not recognize the invaders’ right to defend themselves.
Let’s not forget who is at fault
Beyond the equally fundamental issues of international law, one fact seems significant: once again, it cannot be said that Ukraine “lost” or “lost” the war. Looking at the map, it certainly seems that it has lost a significant chunk of territory, but the military movements in Kherson say it would be in the process of regaining the first region to fall under Moscow control since February 24 is; Western arms support allows Kyiv to repel and contain advance elsewhere; and meanwhile the Russian military potential is becoming less and less important.
To avoid the thought of assuming that Ukraine is somehow responsible for an ongoing war, it would be important for Kiev’s forces to recapture at least the Kherson region as soon as possible. As a fixed point to remind the world that what has happened since February 24 is a deep injustice, accompanied by inhumane and devastating attitudes, where Russia has conquered parts of the territory: razed cities, Russification ensues street signs and school books, not to mention the gratuitous violence, the murders, the rapes, the muggings and the corn burned in the fields.
Strictly speaking, the wheat. The world didn’t have time to “celebrate” two separate deals (Russia-Turkey and Ukraine-Turkey) to release 22 tons of wheat from three Ukrainian ports, about half of which are destined for UN food aid programs in key countries. poor people the next morning from Russia bombed the port of Odessa, one of the three from which the grain would depart. According to the script already seen for the humanitarian corridors, any partial concession always follows the shock. According to some, this attitude makes Russia a terrorist country. A country that, in any case, does not manage to win the war it waged against international law.
The fall of Draghi is glorified by the Russians
In this context, the government of Mario Draghi fell in Italy. The country’s three historically pro-Russian parties (Lega, Forza Italia and Movimento 5 Stelle) have pulled the plug on the government, citing reasons that will also be acceptable to their respective voters, but are nothing more than electoral positions given the vote. at what is probably the most delicate moment at international level in decades. Internal issues aside (beach resorts and taxi drivers partying while wondering if the PNRR is safe, and strong doubts about the “Bonus 200” as of this writing), it seems clear that the war in Ukraine is going strong Exhausted are the parties, whose voters were accustomed to a pro-Russian narrative, starting with opposition to sanctions. Not surprisingly, Draghi’s ouster has been praised by the Russian media and politicians. Italy, the weak link in the liberal and Atlantic western bloc, could indeed fall back into Russian orbit. There are signs of Ukrainephobia in the country, just read the comments on Facebook, but also observe the objective difficulties faced by Ukrainian refugees in relation to renting apartments (despite a one-year European residence permit). Our compatriots may not have properly understood the extent of the suffering of these people.
And winter is coming. According to some, Putin is ready to blackmail Europe with gas. For this reason, too, it would be important not to budge an inch on questions of principle. Concessions to the aggressor country would be even more unfair if motivated by the levels of warming we can afford. From this perspective, the fall of one of Europe’s most determined governments in the choice of field is not good news. We’ll probably have to prepare for some winter casualties, very little compared to what the Ukrainians are going through at home.