In a long interview, the head of the Ukrainian army believes that the Kremlin cannot afford the current military results and that the mobilization of tens of thousands of new Russian soldiers is a danger.
The war is far from over, let alone won. While significant advances by the Ukrainian army in the east of the country have been noted in recent weeks, the Kiev regime is not mistaken and remains extremely alert to the next Russian manoeuvres.
In a lengthy interview with The Economist, Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces, warns that the Kremlin has not capitulated. Worse still, in his opinion, as in the first months of the invasion last February and March, the Russians will “make another attempt to take Kyiv.”
“We estimate that they have a reserve of almost 1.5 million people. The Russians are preparing about 200,000 new soldiers,” he explains, referring to the mobilization ordered by Vladimir Putin in September, which “worked.”
Also this Thursday, this time in the Guardian columns, the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said he feared new violent attacks in the direction of the capital. He also mentioned the new Russian soldiers.
“The mobilized have at least three months to prepare. That means they’re trying to launch the next wave of attacks, probably in February, like last year. That’s their plan,” he warns.
Counterattack by the Kremlin?
This heightened distrust is driven by several factors. Fighting is still going on in eastern Ukraine, especially in the Bachmout region, where the positions are gradually freezing.
In addition, Valery Saluzhny believes that “the Russian army has spent the last three or four years preparing for the invasion” and cannot be in any way satisfied with the current result. Several Russian officials, including Duma deputy speaker Piotr Tolstoy, had already warned on BFMTV that Russian troops were returning to Kherson and Kyiv.
“They hardly squandered their war potential, so now they have to reconsider how to get out of this situation,” he stresses.
A strategy that offers a new war on the ground in which the fighting, unlike the bombings, becomes less and less numerous. “They are looking for a way to avoid direct confrontation between troops, so they bomb. They need it for a purpose: they need time to gather new resources and create new potential,” adds the soldier.
As a final argument, Valery Zaluzhny also points to the functioning of the Russian army, and in particular the way it has functioned throughout history from the Tsarist era to Vladimir Putin. “A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I studied the history of the two Chechen wars, it was the same,” he emphasizes.
“They may not be very well equipped, but they still pose a problem for us,” he concludes.