WashingtonCNN –
President Joe Biden stood alongside his Ukrainian counterpart in the White House just over a year ago and promised American support for Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” It's a commitment he has reiterated again and again in the 22 months since Russia's unprovoked invasion.
On Tuesday, as President Volodymyr Zelensky made another visit to Washington under dramatically changed circumstances, Biden pledged that the U.S. would provide critical weapons and equipment “for as long as we can.”
The quiet language change seemed to acknowledge a reality that became even clearer after Zelensky's last-minute call for more help: American support for Ukraine is neither a guarantee nor an open-ended commitment. What comes next for Ukraine — a harsh winter of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure made worse by the dwindling prospect of help from the Capitol — is daunting.
Biden administration officials say both the U.S. and Ukraine recognize that Ukraine will have to change its strategy in the coming year if it wants to further push back the Russians and secure a more favorable negotiating position when the time comes for peace talks.
Ukrainian officials, including Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, have in recent weeks asked their U.S. counterparts for more face-to-face meetings with senior U.S. military officials, acknowledging that “something has to change” in the way Ukraine is fighting the war against Russia, two US defense officials said.
In response, the US has decided to allow General Antonio Aguto – who currently heads a Wiesbaden-based joint force command called Security Assistance Group-Ukraine – to enter Ukraine for an extended period to advise Ukrainian forces, they said officials.
Previously, Biden administration officials were hesitant to allow senior military officials to stay in Ukraine for an extended period of time to advise Ukrainian military officials in their campaign against Russia because of concerns about being perceived by Russia as masterminding Ukraine's operations, the officials said . But the US now believes that Aguto's presence will be key to facilitating better information sharing and warfare between the US and Ukraine.
This partnership could help ease some of the disagreements that have arisen between the United States and Ukraine over how best to wage the war against Russia. The US wanted Ukraine to focus more on the south, believing it was strategically more important than the east. But Zelensky and his advisers had a different opinion.
Some U.S. officials were frustrated that Ukraine repeatedly delayed its counteroffensive, allowing Russia to significantly bolster its defenses – reinforcements the U.S. did not expect when it began training the Ukrainians in combined arms and mechanized warfare. said one of the officers.
The US has discussed with Ukraine the possibility that in the future the Ukrainians could focus on holding the territory they already control and expanding it to the point where Russia can no longer take it by force – a so-called “hold and build” -Strategy. said the officer.
But this is not a long-term solution because the Russians would continue to shell Ukrainian positions and have the opportunity to replenish and rearm their ranks in ways that Ukraine cannot.
Tuesday's visit to the American capital was a far cry from what the Ukrainian leader experienced when he made his first wartime trip outside Ukraine in December 2022.
Gone was the predominantly bipartisan warmth that greeted Zelensky during his visit a year ago. Instead of a standing ovation, unfurled Ukrainian flags and congressional assurances of more weapons, Zelensky faced a wall of resistance Tuesday from Republicans who are demanding tougher immigration rules before approving new aid.
It appeared unlikely that the immigration deadlock would be resolved by the end of the week, when Congress heads for its holiday recess, although negotiators at Tuesday's meeting said progress was being made.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the Senate and himself a strong supporter of Ukraine, called it “virtually impossible” for a package to pass quickly.
Biden tried to encourage his Ukrainian guest during the Oval Office talks, telling Zelensky he didn't want him to “lose hope.”
“Congress must pass additional funding for Ukraine before they go on holiday recess, before they give Putin the biggest Christmas present they can give him,” Biden said, a fire roaring in the fireplace behind him.
By this time, however, it was already clear that the personal appeals that Zelensky had once used so successfully over the course of the 22-month war no longer had the weight they once had, and that his ability to persuade the Republicans from their position repression is limited.
“I don’t know if he moved the needle at all,” Sen. John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, said after a meeting of all senators in the wood-paneled Mansfield Room in the Capitol.
Even Zelensky seemed to acknowledge the reality during his joint press conference with Biden.
“They were more than positive,” he said of his meeting with Republicans, “but we know we have to separate words from results.”
Border dispute from Zelenskyy's hands
That's partly because the issue at the heart of the standoff — stricter rules that would limit the number of migrants crossing the U.S. southern border — is completely beyond Zelensky's control. He declined to comment during discussions with lawmakers.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin, an Oklahoma Republican who said he supports more aid to Ukraine if it is coupled with tougher border policies, said Zelensky did not get involved in the immigration disputes that are preventing an agreement on more aid.
“We kept it at a high level,” Mullin said. “We are working through the process. And he got it. He was very respectful.”
After Zelensky left the Capitol, immigration talks continued, with senior negotiators meeting with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to further negotiate their differences. The two sides remained at odds over a range of proposals, including steps that Democrats consider too extreme, and it remained uncertain whether congressional leaders would keep members in Washington next week to continue negotiations.
In his press conference with Zelensky, Biden tried to get Republicans to approve new aid. He argued that doing otherwise played into the Russian president's hands, pointing out that the host of a Russian state television show last week praised Republicans for blocking passage of new aid to Ukraine.
“If you are being celebrated by Russian propagandists, perhaps it is time to reconsider your actions,” Biden said.
But beyond the immigration dispute is the fact that Ukraine's ability to expel Russia from its territory is being tested again after the long-awaited counteroffensive failed to achieve its goal of retaking the territory.
“We need a clear articulation of strategy for Ukraine to win, and so far their answers have been inadequate and have not provided us with the clarity and detail we asked for,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said after one Meeting with Zelensky An indication that even the resolution of the immigration dispute will not necessarily lead to immediate approval of Ukraine aid.
Some Republicans, particularly those closely aligned with former President Donald Trump, have begun to escalate their criticism of Zelensky's actions and now say it is inevitable that Kiev will have to cede territory to Russia at some point.
“If you look at how unequal the armed forces are, there really is no path to peace that doesn't involve negotiations. I'm not saying this is a good thing, I'm not saying it's good that Russia invaded Ukraine, I'm not saying it's good that Ukraine has to give up territory, but they have despite hundreds of billions “There has been no significant progress in American aid,” said Senator JD Vance of Ohio after emerging from an all-senator meeting with Zelensky early on Tuesday morning.
Zelensky “was honest about the fact that they have some strategic issues and they need to resolve some issues,” Vance said. “I appreciate that, I don’t think it’s changed the nature of the conversation here in Washington.”
Zelensky described the prospect of losing territory as “crazy, to be honest,” in his press conference with Biden.
The ongoing differences in approach made Tuesday's visit even more critical for Zelensky, who himself is experiencing the first real tensions in his own country's national unity since the start of the war.
Biden and other Democrats wanted to use his presence to warn about the consequences of a Russian victory.
“Without additional resources, we will no longer be able to help Ukraine meet its urgent operational needs,” Biden said during his press conference. “Putin is betting that the US will not deliver to Ukraine. We have to, we have to, we have to prove him wrong.”