A Ukrainian soldier in a bunker near the Bakhmut front on November 17th. DIEGO HERRERA CARCEDO/Anadolu via AFP
ANALYSIS – After the failure of the counteroffensive, the West is wondering how it can help Kiev in the long term.
What if Ukraine lost the war against Russia? The question is taboo among Ukrainians and their Western allies because it is fraught with implications. But after twenty-one months of war, with military fronts frozen since the failure of the counteroffensive, some are discreetly asking the question. We’re not there yet. But for several weeks now, bad news about Ukraine has been piling up, against which all the dark winds of politics and diplomacy are beginning to blow.
Firstly, in the military sector, where stagnation did not wait for the return of the autumn mud and the cold of winter to take hold and freeze initiatives. Some had believed that the social and political crises that rocked the Kremlin over the course of the year saw a possible collapse of the Russian army in the medium term. That hope has now been banished. “The Europeans underestimated the military capabilities of the Russians,” summarizes Alyona…
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