Six months of war and 31 years of Ukraine’s independence are a jubilee that Russia will not let go of. The Ukrainian government and the United States diplomatic corps believe so. This Wednesday marks the double anniversary, and local authorities have been taking extraordinary measures since last week in the face of a possible large-scale Russian attack, particularly on the capital Kyiv, from which more people than usual have left in recent days.
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The US Embassy issued a statement on Tuesday urging its citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has received information that Russia is stepping up efforts to attack government infrastructure and facilities in the coming days,” the statement said. The Pakistani embassy also asked its citizens to leave the country yesterday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier this week ordered officials in Kyiv and employees of the Rada (parliament) to telecommute. Since last Saturday, subway operations have also been shortened by one hour at night to serve as an air-raid shelter if necessary. A 36-hour curfew has been imposed in Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city, which is hit hard by Russian bombing raids every day.
Yesterday, a source close to the EL PAÍS Ministry of Defense revealed a message allegedly distributed to the diplomatic corps by that ministry’s intelligence services. The message consisted of a list of twenty possible Russian targets this week, most of them in the Kyiv region. These targets could be energy infrastructure and military bases.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his wife Olena attend a ceremony marking Ukraine’s Independence Day on Wednesday. UKRAINE PRESIDENCY (AFP)
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Kyiv on high alert
A similar alarm about a possible full-scale Russian bombing raid on Ukraine was raised on May 8, the day Russia celebrates victory over Nazi Germany. On this occasion, the Kremlin did not use the symbolism of the day to further punish the invaded country.
Anti-aircraft alarms have been raised twice in Kyiv since this morning, with no missiles hitting the city. Kyiv’s road exits have led to increased traffic since Monday, as more and more citizens are leaving the metropolis these days for fear of a Russian attack. This withdrawal is far from being as massive as it was at the start of the war last February, when Moscow troops attempted to take the capital.
Faced with the threat of a long-range missile offensive, there will be no parades or gatherings on this anniversary of independence due to the explicit ban by the Ukrainian presidency. To celebrate the date, twenty wrecked Russian military vehicles have been on display on Kyiv’s main street since last week, an exhibition that has drawn thousands of visitors. The Bundesliga started yesterday after an eight-month ban, a decision that is also part of the authorities’ will to instill confidence in the population. The championship will be held behind closed doors and in only four cities.
War to Liberate Crimea
The 31st anniversary of Ukraine’s independence was used by Zelenskyy to reiterate that the war will not end until Russia gives up all occupied territories, including the Crimean Peninsula annexed in 2014. Ukraine’s key international allies in a telematics conference on Tuesday gave their approval to Crimea’s plans for Kyiv to take the initiative and shift from defense to attack, a third move that threatens to prolong the war is unpredictable .
The front to the east is frozen, with little progress on either side. In the south, in Kherson province, where Ukrainian forces plan to launch a counteroffensive to drive the invader off the Black Sea coast, Russia has strengthened its positions by adding new units. In order for the Ukrainian troops to carry out the expected offensive, they would have to multiply the supply of weapons and well-trained soldiers. Major General Vejko Vello-Palm, second in the Estonian General Staff, assured ERR media in an interview last Monday that Ukraine has less than three months to launch the offensive: “The timeframe is short, between eight and ten weeks. From mid-October it will be very difficult to organize an offensive.” Autumn weather conditions are unfavorable for the necessary movement of armored vehicles. Ukraine’s government in Kherson said last July the city, the westernmost Russian-held enclave, would be liberated in September.
Valerii Zaluzhnii, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, last Monday offered the first unofficial count of the defenders who died in half a year of fighting, about 9,000 soldiers. The Kremlin does not provide any information about their victims. Kyiv expects more than 45,000 Russian soldiers dead, although US intelligence estimates that number to be less than half.
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