Theories are circulating about how Ukrainian air defenses shot down the Russian A-50 Beriev AWACS aircraft by setting up a carefully crafted trap. The shooting down of an Il-76-based A-50 radar aircraft with 15 people on board is a major loss for the Russian Air Force, which reportedly only has nine of the aircraft in its fleet.
While speculation is rife that the air defense system was used to shoot down the jumbo plane, military observers are also putting forward theories to understand how it happened. In the same attack, a Russian Ilyushin Il-22 command aircraft was damaged.
Some experts suspect that the Ukrainians have achieved spectacular success with the deployment of one of their “Franken” surface-to-air missiles, created by pairing Patriot missiles with their S-300 systems.
Over 40 A50s were built in the 1980s and 1990s, but as of 2022 only around 16 remain, of which nine to eleven were in airworthy condition. As of late 2022, only three of these aircraft are reportedly “fully operational” (FMC), meaning all equipment is fully operational. This is because they were used extensively in the early months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Air Force scored the kill over the Sea of Azov, where the Patriot had reportedly shot down three Su-34 “Fullback” fighter-bombers less than a month earlier.
Tom Cooper, a defense research analyst, suspects that Ukrainian radar and missile teams hatched a ruse to outwit Russian airborne radar. Tom is the author of several books on Russian defense systems.
Using his knowledge of Russian systems, Cooper surmised what occurred during and before the incident.
Ukrainian ambush of an A-50
The prelude to the January 14 murder was set on January 13, when Ukrainian air force jets, most likely Sukhoi Su-24 bombers, bombed Russian air bases on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula. “Several radars were turned off,” Cooper claims.
The Russians ordered one of their A-50Us to blow up. Since the aircraft was “not adequately” equipped for the task, it was accompanied by an Il-22M airborne command post. Additionally, due to the A-50U's short radar range, it had to operate close to the front line (up to 80-90 kilometers away) to detect incoming Ukrainian aircraft and missiles.
On January 13, after the Ukrainian airstrikes, the A-50U and Il-22M received orders to fly closer to the front. “The two aircraft were escorted – probably by at least two Su-30SM interceptors. “In addition, Su-34 fighter jets fired Kh-59 precision-guided standoff munitions at targets in Ukraine,” Cooper noted.
This flight activity helped Ukraine set a trap for Russian aircraft. “The Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian air defense systems in the Crimean peninsula on January 13th forced the Russians into a response that the Ukrainians could have predicted: a day later, on January 14th, they 'moved' their A-50U closer to the front Front,” Cooper said. “If you behave predictably, you can easily be attacked – and killed.”
On January 14, a Russian Su-34 reported that its electronic warfare systems had recorded a radar emission from a Ukrainian S-300 (NATO nickname SA-10 Grumble), whose presence was not previously known.
Ukrainians allied Patriots with S-300?
On January 14, the Ukrainians “secretly” used an appropriate SAM system to attack the two Russian aircraft from long range; It is unclear whether it was the S-300 SAM system or the Patriot PAC-2/3 system.
“It is also possible that the Ukrainians deployed a launch vehicle and radar (plus power equipment) from one of their three PAC-2/3 SAM systems in “attack mode” in combination with one of their S-300 radars. “, Cooper suspected.
An A-50U AWACS as a whale. Source: Rostec Corporation
The Ukrainians turned on the S-300 and announced their location to the Russian fighter jets. The S-300 radar detected suitable targets and provided “their azimuth and range” to the PAC-2/3 SAM system. The Patriot turned on its radar for only a few seconds: “long enough to obtain its targeting data, but too short for the Russians to reliably detect its emissions and classify them as a threat.”
The Ukrainians then fired their rockets. Immediately after reaching the target, the Ukrainian S-300 and PAC2/3 crews immediately ceased emissions and packed up their systems to avoid possible Russian retaliation.
The A-50U, serial number RF-50601, was hit by the SAMs approximately 90-120 kilometers after takeoff. The plane caught fire and crashed in the swamps south of Preslav. The missile, aimed at approaching the Il-22M, exploded near its target, showering it with shrapnel.
According to reports on Russian social media, at least two crew members were killed and two others were injured (one of whom is still in critical condition). However, the crew managed to fly the badly damaged aircraft back to Anapa Airport and land it safely.
The Russian Air Force only has two A-50Us left, while four more require modernization or overhaul. It is unlikely that Russia will risk its last two A-50s to cover all of Crimea with radar.
- Ritu Sharma has been a journalist for over a decade, writing about defence, foreign policy and nuclear technology.
- She can be reached at ritu.sharma (at) mail.com
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