Ukraine has offered to become neutral if it receives adequate security guarantees from Western nations and has abandoned its aspirations to join NATO. But those moves would require a constitutional amendment or a referendum, neither of which is possible in wartime, analysts say.
What is neutrality?
Under international law, a country is neutral when it does not intervene in situations of international armed conflict involving other warring parties. It cannot allow a belligerent party to use its territory as a base for military operations, to take sides, or to supply military equipment.
What did Zelenskyy say?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted on March 15 that Ukraine was not ready to join NATO.
“We’ve been hearing for years that the door is open, but we’ve also heard that we can’t go along. That is the truth, which we very much recognize,” Zelenskyy said in a statement seen as a abandonment of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and viewed by some Ukrainians as an unacceptable concession.
At peace talks in Turkey on Tuesday, Ukrainian negotiators said Kyiv is ready to accept neutrality if western states like the United States, France and Britain make binding security guarantees as part of an international deal.
However, Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO is enshrined in the country’s constitution, which cannot be changed during the current martial law or state of emergency.
Could Ukraine change its constitution?
Any amendment would have to approve the measure by 300 out of 450 lawmakers in two separate sessions of Parliament and then be confirmed by the Constitutional Court.
“There are not 300 votes today, but if the conflict continues and we see that NATO is not helping, opinions could change,” said Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.
“Zelensky’s disappointment with the insufficient NATO aid is changing public opinion. For us, NATO is the easiest and least painful concession,” he added.
What do Ukrainians want?
According to the latest poll by polling institute Rating earlier this month, 44% of Ukrainians think their country should join NATO, down two percentage points from the poll conducted in February before the start of the Russian invasion.
About 42% believe that Ukraine should continue to cooperate with NATO but not join it.
“Ukrainians want to join NATO, but if Europe offers EU membership and proposes a financial package to rebuild Ukraine, the NATO debate could be forgotten for a while,” said Mykola Davydiuk, a Kyiv-based political scientist.
“If Britain, France and the United States – three nuclear powers – give security guarantees, such an alliance would be stronger than integration into NATO,” he added.
Ukrainian negotiators in Turkey on Tuesday compared the security guarantees they want to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, in which members pledge to defend each other in the event of military aggression.
With Agence France Presse