After ten days of counter-offensive, the Ukrainian armed forces concentrated their forces on three axes. They nibble at the ground and take heavy casualties in very fierce battles.
Now that the launch of the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive is no longer in doubt, another question remains unanswered: after several months of preparation, is the fate of the weapons what Kiev wants? After ten days of attacks, the realities are far from clear and it is impossible to say whether Ukraine is on the road to success.
“We shouldn’t rely on the first Ukrainian attacks or Russian defensive operations to predict the outcome of the counteroffensive,” warns the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American research center, especially since “the objectives of the counteroffensive are not yet complete clear.” Several military advisers and the US call for patience and assure that this phase is likely to last a long time. “The fight is getting harder and harder. Summer will be tough for Ukraine’s international allies. Losses will increase and gains will take time to materialize,” Jack Watling said in a letter from the Royal United Institute (Rusi), a British organization.
Also read Counteroffensive: Ukrainian forces attack with three axes
The Ukrainian forces are currently attempting to break through on three axes where they have nibbled some ground. Initially, the troops would have advanced south of Zaporizhia, near Orichiv, 3 kilometers around Mala Tomashka. At the other end of this southern front, which stretches from the Dnieper to the western suburbs of the city of Donetsk, occupied since 2014, they had on Thursday, still according to the Ukrainian staff, covered 7 kilometers on the second axis of the offensive, around Velyka Novosilka not far by Vouledar. On the third axis, north and northwest of Bachmout, which is now in Russian hands, Ukrainian commandos “conducted operations,” said Oleksandr Shtupun, the military spokesman. Ukrainian forces insisted on the same points on Friday, Kiev assured without giving further details.
However, some lessons could be learned from the first clashes. Several western sources state that Ukrainian casualties would be heavy and fighting extremely fierce. Kiev does not reveal anything, as it should, but material losses are an indicator. Kiev lost four recently delivered German Leopard tanks, two French AMX-10 RC FR reconnaissance tanks and more than 70 Western infantry main battle tanks, according to the Oryx specialist publication, which lists these losses using photos or videos taken on the battlefield.
electronic warfare
The offensive is costing ever-increasing numbers of lives, and Russia’s defenses of minefields, trenches and “dragon’s teeth” have been built up over months to form the mightiest “wall” Europe has seen since World War II. The Russian troops themselves would prove effective for now, unsurprisingly. Having suffered defeat south of Kharkiv in the early months of the conflict and in the fall, the Russian army has since regained control. Australian General Mick Ryan therefore paid tribute to the good conduct of the delicate withdrawal operation in Kherson.
These battles are only preliminary in nature and are undoubtedly aimed at testing the Russians or finding possible weak points. Ukraine is still far from having deployed the bulk of these forces. At best, it only sank a few kilometers into enemy lines without actually making a breakthrough. However, as the Russian points out, “the main line of defense is still 15 to 20 kilometers away from the Ukrainian positions.” And as Kiev’s soldiers advance, they will come under Russian artillery fire and it will become increasingly difficult for their own artillery to conduct counter-battery fire, an area in which Moscow has made great strides. The danger for the Ukrainians is all the greater as the terrain south of Zaporizhia is very flat, offers no real cover and is therefore ideal for drones.
Also readUkraine: At the front, defending the “wet cuts”
Minefields, extremely numerous and permanently remodeled by rocket launchers, represent a major obstacle that “channels” the Ukrainian armed forces into dangerous bottlenecks. But most of the attention these days seems to be focused on electronic warfare. According to Russian bloggers and Western sources, Moscow has regained an advantage in this area, jamming signals and greatly reducing the effectiveness of the munitions guided by the Ukrainian GPS, especially that of Himars, those American missile launchers that until then intimidated the flight of drones and made difficult . In Kiev, the General Staff would have made the destruction of Russian electronic warfare units a priority.
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