Ukraine is experiencing its worst moment since the Russian invasion

Sao Paulo

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky arrives in the United States this Monday (11) with the proverbial saucer in hand. Your country is experiencing the most delicate moment in the war it has been waging since February 2022 against Vladimir Putin's invading forces, which now occupy almost 20% of the neighboring country.

Kiev can only maintain its armed forces thanks to foreign aid. It is claimed that in the event of an overthrow or ceding of territory to Russia, countries like the Baltic states would be next in line which is actually more difficult given that they are members of NATO, the USled military alliance , whose membership guarantees mutual security between armed nations. nuclear.

Zelensky will meet with President Joe Biden, Kiev's single biggest supporter: According to the Institute for World Economy in Kiel (Germany), as of October 31, the Americans gave the Ukrainians the equivalent of R$380 billion, 61% of which was in military aid.

But Biden's largesse has political and institutional limits. Last week, the Republican opposition in the Senate vetoed the Democratic president's package, which allocated around R$300 billion to Ukraine in 2024, on the grounds that the measure would support Israel's war against Hamas and the Border security includes illegal immigration.

It's all politics, of course: Biden's likely rival in the 2024 presidential election, his predecessor Donald Trump, has already signaled that he is against full support for Kyiv.

Zelenski will also speak to senators this Tuesday (12), but behind closed doors. On Sunday (10), Republican Senator JD Vance, who is being considered for Trump's vice presidential candidacy, told CNN that Ukrainians must cede land to Putin if they want to see an end to the war.

“The idea that Ukraine would push Russia back to its 1991 borders [quando a União Soviética acabou] is absurd. Nobody really believed that,” he said, echoing an opinion that also prevailed among Zelensky’s European allies.

According to the German institute, support for Kyiv fell dramatically in the AugustOctober period this year, with 90% less aid compared to the same months in 2022. There was only around R$10 billion in new military packages, which was the lowest Stand since then represents the beginning of the war, which also reflects the boredom in Europe.

The White House warned last week that Zelensky's money would run out at the end of the year unless there was a deal with Congress. The problem for the Ukrainian was the expectations of the counteroffensive he launched in June with vaunted but inadequate weapons and NATO training.

It achieved occasional successes but failed in its goal of cutting the land connection between Russia and Crimea, which it annexed in 2014 through its occupation of eastern and southern Ukraine. If Putin failed to overthrow Zelensky and tame all of Ukraine last year, he will end 2023 in a much more comfortable situation.

The Russian president will stand for reelection in March, an election seen as a landslide given the lack of real opposition in the country. Logic dictates that he will continue his war until then, and probably until it is determined who will take command of Washington in the November dispute.

Meanwhile, this Monday, Russia again attacked Kiev with longrange ballistic missiles, something that had not happened for months the preference for drones of Iranian origin, which were less effective but cheaper, had been clear. This suggests a renewed campaign during the European winter, bringing most ground action to a halt.

Putin is playing with time. In 2022 and 2023, the Kremlin restructured part of the Russian economy to advance military efforts. His budget for next year calls for the largest military spending in postCold War history, with an estimated 30% of free federal investment going to the defense sector.

This Monday, Putin spoke triumphantly as he commissioned two new nuclear submarines in the Russian north, one designed to attack cruise missiles and the other, one of the feared ballistic missile launchers, armed with nuclear warheads. “We will strengthen our presence in all strategic oceans of the world,” he said.

Part of his new confidence, after even witnessing a mercenary mutiny against the armed forces leadership in June, comes from the battlefield. Russia has the initiative at points on the Ukrainian front in Donetsk (east) and, although it is not even close to conquering Ukraine, has gained more territory this year than it has lost in the country.

Then there is the economy. Last week, trade with China, its main ally and partner, broke the historic record for 2022, reaching the equivalent of just over R$1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year with a slight surplus for Russia, which exports gas and oil with a price discount of up to 30% compared to the Chinese, and its consumer goods market was flooded with products from Beijing.

“I never thought I would ever use a Chinese cell phone. But when my iPhone broke in a fall, I realized it would be more expensive to repair it with parts smuggled from Armenia than to buy a new one. And that’s what we do. “This is what we’re talking about,” says Moscowbased military analyst Ivan Barabanov.

He's not just a customer. According to Rosstat (Federal Statistical Service), today about 50% of laptops and 30% of cars sold in Russia are Chinese.

In 2018, a geological era ago politically speaking, the European Union was Russia's largest partner. This year, Moscow sold half of the volume achieved that year to the Chinese. In 2019, even before Putin and Xi Jinping signed the 2022 “Unlimited Friendship” Treaty, the countries decided to expand their business.

Just as important as the volume is the feature: 95% of trading is carried out in rubles and yuan, so the dollar is taken out of the equation. There are doubts about the quality of the partnership, with the Chinese press reporting a lack of interest from Beijing and major projects such as the Siberian Force 2 gas pipeline.

Analysts say the problems are sideways. “The project makes sense for Russia, which has the money to pay for it without a Chinese loan,” said Alexander Gubaev, director of the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia, who was transferred from Moscow to Berlin.

He predicts a long conflict because Putin's rhetoric has turned the invasion of Ukraine into an existential struggle against a West hostile to a resurgent Russia. “War is the driving force of Russian life today,” he says.

Although it is nominally Russia's largest partner, China is not the only one keeping Putin's country's economy afloat. Trade with India rose 242% in 2022, largely due to the brutal oil sale to New Delhi. Even in Brazil, growth this year was the same as China, at 28%.

Trade with several European countries remains good despite the sanctions, which affect about half of the products exchanged with Russia. For example, a key NATO country, fractious Turkey, is the secondlargest exporter to the Russians, having seen a 103% increase in its trade flows with its partner in 2022.

Proportionately, trade with Moscow is more important for Ankara, accounting for 0.08% of its GDP, than for Beijing, which accounts for eight times less.