the army of Ukraine fires thousands of artillery shells daily to maintain control of the city Bachmutin the east of the country, at a pace US and European officials say is unsustainable and could jeopardize their planned campaign in April which Ukrainians hope will be crucial to defeating them Russia in war.
The bombing was so intense that the US government US recently expressed concern to Ukrainians about the wastage of ammunition after several days of continuous artillery fire. According to Pentagon sources, there is a growing contradiction between Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut at all costs and its hope of retaking territory from Russia by midyear. The Ukrainian armed forces have even received warnings about wasting ammunition at a critical time.
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United States and United Kingdom are preparing to send thousands of artillery shells to the Ukrainians. However, this effort must be the last of the western allies. Ukraine’s allies do not have enough ammunition to keep up with the pace of consumption. Your inventories are critically low. Western manufacturers are ramping up production, but it will be many months before new supplies begin to meet demand.
This is happening because the Americans and Europeans did not stockpile weapons in anticipation of an artillery war like the one in Ukraine. The United States expects to produce 90,000 artillery shells per month, but it should take two years to reach that rate.
A European Union pools resources to craft and purchase around 1 million grenades. But that too will take time. And a British task force is leading efforts around the world to find and buy Sovietera ammunition on which Ukraine largely depends.
No bullet in the needle
That puts Kiev in an increasingly risky position: its troops are likely to have only one significant opportunity this year to go on the offensive, push back Russian forces and retake occupied territories after last year’s invasion. And they will likely have to do so while dealing with continued ammunition shortages. Adding to the uncertainty were Ukrainian losses, which were so heavy that commanders must decide whether to send units to defend Bakhmut or use them in the spring offensive .
A brigade commander who was instrumental in holding the position at Bakhmut posted on Facebook Tuesday that there was “a catastrophic shortage of shells.” He described an incident where his unit stopped a Russian T90 tank but was forbidden from completely destroying the tank with an artillery shell because “it’s too expensive”.
The Pentagon estimates that Ukraine is firing thousands of artillery shells a day across the 1,000kilometer frontline that includes Bakhmut, a city almost completely surrounded by Russian troops. Moscow troops control about half of the city and are shutting down the supply lines the Ukrainians need to defend the rest.
Artillery became the dominant weapon of war in Ukraine, including howitzers and mortars. Both sides have strong antiaircraft systems, so the ground war was the most important. As the yearslong conflict rages on, a key factor is who will hold out and which side has enough ammunition and soldiers.
It is estimated that over 200,000 Russians have been wounded or killed since the war began. Among Ukrainians the number exceeds 100 thousand. Russia can draw on soldiers from its population, which is about three times larger than Ukraine’s, but both sides live with shortages of ammunition. Russian formations fire more than Ukrainian ones.
Political and military victory
Camille Grand, an expert at the European Council on International Relations who was NATO’s UnderSecretaryGeneral for Defense Investments until last fall, said it was both politically important and militarily necessary for Ukraine to show it was defending its territory. But, Grand said, “they have to show that the defense was worth it.”
That’s not to say there aren’t tactical reasons to continue the ongoing fighting in Bakhmut, he said. Such an effort could exhaust Russia’s resources and make it impossible for its troops to advance further west, where they could win another advance towards Moscow.
“That would be the reason for wasting so much blood and ammunition on Bakhmut,” Grand said. “Otherwise they got into a situation that works in Russia’s favor in the long term and from which it is now difficult to free themselves.”
He added: “Is it correct to note that the Ukrainians are exploiting the reserve contingents, putting them in a more difficult position to establish the open artillery fire needed to launch a fortified offensive against the Russian lines elsewhere?”.
“That’s the big question mark now.”/ TRANSLATION BY AUGUSTO CALIL