Members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force inspect new weapons, including NLAW anti-tank systems and other man-portable anti-tank grenade launchers, in Kyiv on March 9, 2022, amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Genya Savilov | Afp | Getty Images
As the war between Ukraine and Russia drags on, it is clear that Ukraine has put up much stronger resistance to Russian forces than many expected. But to continue to do so, more help from the West will be required.
This continued support, military experts and strategists say, could strengthen or break Ukraine’s resistance and even turn the war in Ukraine’s favor, something that seemed unimaginable when Russia invaded two weeks ago.
“There may be a moment when this balance [in the war] is shifting in favor of Ukraine,” Wojciech Lorenz, senior analyst at the International Security Program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, told CNBC on Thursday.
Additional support from individual NATO members in the form of weapons, intelligence and other forms of assistance “really matters, and that’s why Russia is doing so badly,” he said.
He added that there may even come a time when Ukraine can not only resist Russian forces, but also launch a counteroffensive against them “and regain lost territories.”
While Ukraine has won the love of people and governments around the world for its bold stance against the Russian invasion, Russia has come under heavy sanctions that have left it geopolitically, economically and financially isolated and vulnerable.
As the World Bank’s chief economist predicts that Russia is approaching default on its foreign debt while at home, many foreign brands have left Russia or ceased operations there, and Russian consumers are feeling the pain of the central bank’s interest rate hike. 20% to support the collapsing ruble.
NATO dilemma
Aside from the sanctions that were quickly and surprisingly unanimously imposed by the West, one of the biggest dilemmas for the West is how much military aid it can and should provide to Ukraine. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but is a pro-Western ally important geopolitically as a buffer state between Russia and the rest of Europe.
NATO has repeatedly said it supports Ukraine and its leadership led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, and NATO Allies have unilaterally offered and delivered arms to Ukraine to help it defend itself.
However, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly urged Western officials to provide additional support. This ranges from more actionable maneuvers, such as imposing full sanctions on Russia and providing more weapons, to more problematic calls for a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine. NATO rejected the latest request, saying it could lead to a direct confrontation with Russia.
Without this additional support from NATO, Zelenskiy needs to keep Ukraine at the forefront of global geopolitical priorities and other forms of support for the country, the strategists say.
“At this critical moment, every large shipment of weapons that he [Zelenskyy] gets, every word of support he gets and every action that NATO takes is helping him and helping Ukraine, and he is trying to keep that straight from a political standpoint,” said Jan Lesser, Vice President of the German Marshall Fund in the USA, CNBC Thursday. .
New members of the Territorial Defense Forces train to handle an RPG-7 anti-tank gun during a military exercise amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv, March 9, 2022.
Valentin Ogirenko | Reuters
Calling the Russian invasion and military aggression against Ukraine “outrageous,” Lesser said it remains vital to keep up the pace of support for the country, whether through emotional support that the public around the world can provide or media coverage. However, he wonders how long such support can last.
“There is already a shift in the discussion of energy security, the cost to Western society and the economy, the stability of the international financial system. Of course, these are all very real questions, but from Zelenskiy’s point of view, all this distracts from the main problem, which is the fate of his people in Ukraine.”
It’s important to note, Lesser said, that Western partners will be more inclined to support Ukraine if they “believe that Ukraine can benefit from it.”
Risks facing NATO
While Ukraine has a chance of defeating Russia, analysts say that if the opposite happens, President Vladimir Putin might dare to attack NATO.
“Russia wants to change the security architecture in Europe and wants to recreate an empire by taking control of at least Belarus and Ukraine, so even if they can’t achieve their goals now, after years of reorganization, they will try again,” Lorenz, senior analyst, said.
Lorenz said Putin’s intentions in this regard became clear last December, when Russia demanded the US and NATO that it needed legal guarantees to rule out NATO’s eastward expansion and deployment of weapons, which Putin said in early December , “threaten us at close range.” neighborhood with the territory of Russia.
“Russia needs to just suffer a strategic defeat,” Lorenz said, because if Putin believes that he “has achieved victory by further undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine, or the West is forcing Ukraine to accept some kind of humiliating peace terms, such as recognizing the annexation of Crimea or the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, it will only mean that in a couple of years we will have a war between Russia and NATO.”
How will Russia respond?
Russian military aggression appears to be becoming more indiscriminate, with its forces attacking a children’s hospital and maternity ward on Wednesday. Russia said it did not strike civilians in the hospital despite images indicating civilians were captured in the attack, while Ukraine again accused it of committing a war crime.
There are fears that Russia may use biological weapons against Ukraine, and intelligence officials fear that Russia may invent a pretext to use chemical or even nuclear weapons either against Ukraine or against any other country if Russia feels a direct confrontation.
At the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, Putin warned Western countries that any intervention in what he called Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine would have “consequences that will be more severe than you have experienced in history.” He did not provide details about what this would entail.
Members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force inspect new weapons, including NLAW anti-tank systems and other man-portable anti-tank grenade launchers, in Kyiv on March 9, 2022, amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Genya Savilov | Afp | Getty Images
Most analysts agree that NATO’s current path of allowing member states to help Ukraine individually and refraining from any collective action is the right one. But if Russia’s attacks on Ukraine take a darker turn, that stance will be harder to maintain.
“NATO allies are properly concerned about the possibility of a military escalation that could lead to a larger war between NATO and Russia,” Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC Wednesday, though he praised the alliance’s “impressive moves.” “For the time being, provide military support to Ukraine.
“Such support helps Ukrainians resist the Russian invasion, and the Ukrainian military, its democratic government and the country’s citizens have shown demonstrative resilience,” he said.
It is not known how far Russia will go – or be able to – retaliate against any country helping Ukraine, and analysts say Putin’s increasingly reckless and unpredictable behavior is hard to judge.
“Given Russia’s current position, the options for retaliation are currently limited — in fact, Russia cannot afford to retaliate other than provocation and intimidation,” Anton Barbashin, a political scientist and editor-in-chief of Riddle Russia magazine, told CNBC Wednesday. He added that it would be difficult for Russia to act given its ties to Ukraine.
However, he warned, “other options cannot be ruled out.”