professor Vittorio Emanuele ParsiPolitical scientist and professor of the Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Milan, photographs the moment of the war in Ukraine, underlines the false predictions of some Italian scholars and outlines the perspectives of the new international relations between the powers.
Professor Parsi, does sending the tanks to the Ukrainians change anything about the war?
“This is a decision that improves Ukraine’s resilience and is a signal of determination to support. It gives the Russians no excuse to export the war out of Ukraine.
Will relations between the United States and Russia change?
“I don’t think they can change. They’re already on the path they’ve been taking for several months. The fact that they’re sending the tanks doesn’t change anything.”
Could a global conflict erupt?
“At the moment there is no reason to assume that the conflict will escalate. But Putin doesn’t need any excuses for that.”
When the “short century” returns, do these schemes return and with them the “fifth pillars”?
“The situation may be more complicated. In recent years there have been rumors about this or that political figure and about this or that funding from Russia. They affected not only Italy, but all of Europe. Then there are attempts to base the vote on the Kremlin, as it may have succeeded, and I am thinking of the American presidential elections, those in some European countries, or Brexit, in which politics related to the prevailing economic dimension of the international systems took a back seat.
Is the situation changing now?
“The economy made certain practices easier: one was less exposed to the accusation of being a “traitor to the fatherland and felt that there was only “the land system and no longer the fatherland. On the other hand, the war unleashed by Putin puts politics back at the center of international issues, politics in its most brutal dimension, in its seemingly eternal dimension, in continuity with European history up to the mid20th century, because undoubtedly there is a very strong discontinuity , to begin with in the mid20th century, trying to build a pluralistic and interdependent international system thanks to the market, trade and exchange.The market has marginalized politics in recent years.Now politics has returned to the centre, and this leaves the casual no longer to operations that lasted until before the Draghi government, now the political parties must realize that one cannot be friends with America and Russia at the same time. and the threat to the sovereignty of the union states certainly does not come from Brussels, but from the external borders. These are all factors that compel the parties to comment on this.”
Giuseppe Conte raises the bar for increasing military spending. Do the Grillini want to undermine the proAtlantic system?
“There is an internal battle for the lead and Conte is willing to do a lot to get it back. He is doing all of this to create trouble for Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio and internal opponents. And I think he works that way, too. Because reclaiming the socalled “5 Star Movement from its origins”. That means a return to the more populist component. Conte was, after all, a man of the three seasons: he interpreted the populist seal of yellow green alliance, then he wanted to represent the alliance’s leadership with the Democratic Party Now that he’s been ousted from the control room, he’s trying to move between “5 stars of struggle and 5 stars of government,” with devastating Consequences the institutionalized part suffers This is what Alberoni taught us: when we return to the “nascent state” of a movement, the institutional dimension is in pain. Today, the discourses on international agreements are losing their emphasis and those of the stomach are returning. it returns that of the first grillismo, which has an Atlantean and less proEuropean position. But I don’t see any sophisticated calculations or special strategies.”
The “Korean scheme” is under discussion as a solution to the Ukraine conflict. De Gasperi spoke of “fifth columns” in Italy at the time of the Korean War. Should we expect the birth of an antiAmerican party in Italy?
“We don’t have ideal reference points as strong as those of the Cold War. There are no more liberal, democratic, popular, socialist, welldefined or even alternative communist ideals. I speak of the great values of values. There is a whole segment of public opinion, the business class, the political class and the cultural class, why not, that has difficulty contemplating an Italian position that is firmly Atlantic and firmly European, all the more so now that these two dimensions exist collapsing because of the enemy at the gates, so there is a seduction, and then the state of Italian society, which still has a very low level of education, even at the university level, with a very drugged information system. A country that is looking for very reassuring slogans that will allow it to live calmly and continue trading. This is the real threat to us: France or Spain, as long as it is magna”. Something different from the respectable and serious pacifist movement, but which it knows how to exploit for its political, business and media gains.
Do you agree that this is the last call for the European Union?
“This is a chance and it could be the last. At the moment the EU has done well, we have to see how it is. Before the war in Ukraine, Germany was a role model: a big export country, they said. Germany is the big problem after the war in Ukraine: a country embarrassingly dependent on Russia’s energy imports in this sense the EU has realized that being a free trade zone and a big exporter is not enough. They must also be energetic, militarily and strategically independent, and have the ability to make quick decisions. This is of course a big challenge.
The war, which was supposed to be a “flash”, threatens to become a permanent conflict. Thanks to the Ukrainian resistance. Many Italian scholars have made the wrong prediction.
“I, like others, have always written some things, at least since 2014. We cannot be in these conditions of vulnerability in relation to Russia. I repeat that I have been saying this for years. Just read Clausewitz. They were forgotten about Clausewitz “War is a struggle of wills. Therefore, the stronger has more tools to bend the liberty of the weaker. But the weaker still has his will. It is clear that it is difficult for Italy to understand why the Ukrainians are fighting so for their freedom. But the Ukrainians were under the Russian Tsarist and Soviet heel. And they understand what is in Russia. You see, the Russian propaganda in Ukraine doesn’t work as well as in Italy. The Ukrainians see what she Putin is doing with the Russians, eh “Eh, but sooner or later,” we are told. Ukraine should teach us a lot about that.”
Is globalization over?
“Globalization was already in crisis. If we can get it under control again, that is, be aware of the political risk as well as the economic risk, that is, globalization between similar countries and not with countries that threaten each other, it can be recalibrated… On the other hand However, we need a globalization that takes into account the drifting apart of democratic systems and autocratic systems, which means not always going to war, but dealing with the risk of drifting apart, including capacities. Domestic representative democracy. Otherwise we will always remain hostages to the count on duty”.
What do you foresee for the future of USChina relations?
“It has been a strained relationship since at least 2008, by Chinese decision. The Chinese have seized the opportunity to step out of the American system of order and are beginning to lay the foundations for an alternative. You want to put yourself in the center. This war is forcing China to choose between supporting Putin, risking a headon confrontation with the US and EU, not necessarily by military force, or calling Putin to order and continuing on his path of competition but not military opposition, at least for the time being”.