After a year fierce battles with the Russiansthe military troops of Ukraineare considered to be of higher quality than those of Russia, began to falter after racking up casualties and losing many of the most experienced fighters. Western officials estimate that around 120,000 soldiers from the invaded country were killed or wounded, and the current state of the armed forces cast doubt on Kiev’s ability to launch an offensive off Moscow now that the northern hemisphere winter is over.
To replace losses, the Ukrainians had to recruit new soldiers, which made the army less experienced. The country also suffers from a shortage of basic ammunition, including artillery shells and mortars, according to the military. “The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” a commander of the 46th Air Assault Brigade, identified only as Kupol, told the Washington Post. “There are few soldiers with combat experience. Unfortunately, they are all already dead or injured,” he added.
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The assessment spreads a notable but unspoken pessimism from the front lines of the war to the highest levels of government. If the country does not manage to carry out a successful counteroffensive at this point in the war, criticism of the USA will be voiced US and the Europe for waiting too long to deepen military training programs and supply main battle tanks, including Bradleys and Leopards.
Alice Martins/Washington Post
Ukrainian soldiers train in eastern Ukraine in a picture from the 4th. New recruits face difficulties on the battlefield due to lack of experience Photo: Alice Martins/The Washington Post
However, according to a US official, the current situation on the battlefield does not necessarily reflect the conditions of the Ukrainian armed forces, as Kiev separately trains troops for the next offensive, keeping them out of the ongoing fighting, including defense Bachmut.
The head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine Andri Iermak said the state of the Ukrainian army did not dampen expectations about a future attack on the Russians. “I don’t think we’ve reached our potential,” said Iermak. “I think in every war there comes a time when you have to prepare new soldiers, which is happening right now.”
Situation of the Russian Army
On the Russian side, casualties are estimated at 200,000, but the country has a much larger army and about three times that population from which to recruit. During a NATO meeting last month, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that 97% of Russia’s army was already stationed in Ukraine and that Moscow was suffering “WW1 attrition”.
Still, given the attrition on both sides, it remains doubtful how much Ukraine’s training in partnership with the West will play in the next onslaughts of the war. A senior Ukrainian government official said on condition of anonymity that the number of tanks promised by the West is a “symbolic amount”. Others express pessimism about getting supplies to the battlefield while there is still time.
“Those who have fewer resources defend themselves more. We will defend. Therefore, if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a major counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe that, but I look at the resources and I’m like, ‘With what?'” the official said. “We have neither men nor weapons. You know the ratio: when you’re on offense, you lose two or three times as many people. We cannot afford to lose that many people.”
Shell casings left on the ground at a training camp in eastern Ukraine, in a picture taken in March 4. The shortage of basic ammunition is a problem for the country’s military, which is urging the US and Europe to help quickly Photo:
Kupol hopes that Ukrainian troops who are withdrawn to train for a counteroffensive will be more successful on the battlefield than the inexperienced soldiers under his command. “There will be a counteroffensive anyway,” he explained.
Such predictions are much less optimistic than public statements by Ukraine’s political and military leaders. President of Ukraine Volodmir Zelenskyy called this year “the year of victory” for Ukraine. The head of military intelligence Kirilo Budanov spoke about the possibility of Ukrainians spending a summer vacation (in June) in Crimea, which has been annexed by Russia for nine years.
battlefield
At the front, the mood is gloomy. Kupol, the Ukrainian commander, said he fought with newly recruited soldiers who had never thrown a grenade and left their positions immediately after being attacked by Russians. They also lacked firearms experience.
After a year of war, Kupol said his battalion was unrecognizable. Of the 500 or so soldiers, about 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to a complete turnover. Kupol says he is now the only military professional in the battalion. “I get 100 soldiers but they don’t give me time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into battle,'” he says.
Alice Martins/Washington Post
Picture shows Kupol, commander of a Ukrainian battalion. The military says to deal with soldiers fleeing the battlefield when attacked. Photo: Alice Martins / The Washington Post
The commander also says he suffers from ammunition shortages, including shortages of basic mortar bombs and shells for USmade MK 19s.
Meanwhile, a Russian offensive has been brewing since early January, according to the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Oleksandr Sirski. Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia has more than 325,000 troops stationed in Ukraine, and another 150,000 troops may soon join the fight. Ukrainian soldiers report that they are outnumbered and have less ammunition.
Russia, too, is struggling with ammunition, manpower and motivation and has only gained gradually in recent months despite the critical condition of Ukrainians. US officials say as bad as Ukraine’s losses are, Russia’s are even worse.
“The question is whether Ukraine’s relative advantage is sufficient to meet its objectives and whether those advantages can be sustained,” said Michael Kofman, a Virginiabased CNA military analyst. “It depends not only on them, but also on the West.”
US officials have said they expect Ukraine’s offensive to begin in late April or early May and recognize the urgency of arming Kiev as a protracted war initially favors Russia, which has more people, money and resources weapons production.
When asked at a recent congressional hearing how much more US aid might be needed, Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl admitted he had no answer for members of the House of Representatives. “We do not know the course or course of the conflict,” said Kahl. “It could be over in six months, it could be over in two years, it could be over in three years.”