Grain crisis, tensions with Warsaw, criticism of military strategy… Difficulties are piling up for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is fighting from New York to Washington to maintain Western aid in his war against Russia.
• Also read: Zelensky in Washington to ensure continued American support
• Also read: Grain controversy: negotiations with Warsaw ‘in the coming days’, Kiev says
• Also read: Ukraine: Several cities hit by Russian missiles, two dead in Kherson
More than 18 months after the start of the Russian invasion, Volodymyr Zelensky fears the fatigue of public opinion in Europe and the USA. Overview of his diplomatic projects.
slowness
The Ukrainian counteroffensive runs into the formidable Russian defenses. The hope of a quick breakthrough resists neither analysis nor facts. Western support must therefore continue.
“It is very likely that Russia will take the time to dig deeper, build new fortifications and prepare for spring,” Margo Grosberg, head of Estonian intelligence, told The Insider.
“It is clear to even Ukraine’s most ebullient supporters that this war is likely to last until 2024 and perhaps even 2025,” confirmed retired Australian general Mick Ryan.
“While Ukraine is in a better strategic position today than it was in December 2022, the perception of success (and failure) in Washington and other Western capitals is just as important.”
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Try Washington
After making his case at the United Nations in New York, Zelensky arrived in Washington on Thursday to prevent a weakening of American support, particularly in the event of a Republican victory in the 2024 presidential election.
According to Mick Ryan, “several interest groups in Congress have been advocating for reducing or halting aid” to Kiev for a year, citing tensions with China and the temptation of isolation.
The personal conversation between the Ukrainian President and the Republican leader of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, is likely to be difficult. “I have questions for him. Can he account for the money we have already spent? “What is the strategy for victory?” McCarthy said on Tuesday.
“Smart public diplomacy can help the Republicans,” “but it has limits,” Ivan Klyszcz of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia told AFP. “The trend towards increasing dependence on Europe will continue.”
Tensions with Warsaw
However, this problem is also complicated. Starting with the tensions with Poland, through which Western military aid flows.
On Wednesday, Warsaw “urgently” summoned the Ukrainian ambassador. She protested against President Zelensky’s statements at the UN that “certain countries feign solidarity by indirectly supporting Russia.”
But for Ivan Klyszcz, “these episodes of mutual distrust have not changed the overall course of events” between the two countries. “Kiev sees Poland as an important partner and Warsaw wants to avoid Ukraine’s defeat,” he added.
The grain dissonance
Since February 2022, Kiev’s neighbors have been crucial to the transit of Ukrainian grain to Africa and the Middle East and are facing an influx of grain following the lifting of EU tariffs.
Given the overload of the silos and the collapse of local prices, several of them imposed a unilateral embargo in the spring. Brussels then approved the restrictions, temporarily. But the Commission has just decided not to extend the agreement, which has provoked the anger of the countries concerned.
In retaliation, Ukraine announced on Monday a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the three countries that extended the embargo: Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.
disagreements
At the same time, the camp is being strengthened by those who are committed to starting negotiations with Moscow.
In August, Stian Jenssen, chief of staff to NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, suggested that Ukraine could cede territory in exchange for NATO membership. “It is up to the Ukrainians and only the Ukrainians to decide (…) what is an acceptable solution,” corrected Mr. Stoltenberg.
Analysts emphasize that any controversy in the West serves the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who believes time is on his side in this war of attrition.
“Perhaps better communication with Kiev (doors closed) could have avoided such headlines,” Theresa Fallon, director of CREAS, a Brussels-based think tank, tweeted on Thursday, commenting on the Warsaw crisis.
“No doubt that Russian propaganda will do a lot of that.”