- Two armed groups claim responsibility for the attacks
- Kiev parodies previous Kremlin denials of military involvement
- Preparations for a counter-offensive against the Russian invasion
LONDON/KIEV, May 24 (Portal) – A two-day incursion from Ukraine into Russia’s western border areas could force the Kremlin to withdraw troops from the front lines while Kiev prepares a major counteroffensive and deal a psychological blow to Moscow, according to military analysts.
Although Kiev has denied any role, Ukraine’s biggest cross-border attack since Russia invaded 15 months ago was almost certainly coordinated with Ukraine’s armed forces preparing for an attempt to retake territory, the experts added.
“The Ukrainians are trying to pull the Russians in different directions to open loopholes. The Russians are forced to send reinforcements,” said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Ukraine says it is planning a major counter-offensive to retake the occupied territories, but Russia has built extensive fortifications to the east and south of its neighbor in preparation.
The incursion took place far from the epicenter of fighting in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region and some 160 km from the front lines in northern Kharkiv region.
“They have to respond to that and deploy troops there and then deploy a lot of troops throughout the border area, even though the Ukrainians may not do that,” Melvin said.
The Russian military said on Tuesday it had driven out militants who used armored vehicles to attack the western Belgorod region the previous day, killing more than 70 “Ukrainian nationalists” and pushing the rest back into Ukraine.
Kiev said the attack was perpetrated by Russian citizens and described it as a domestic, intra-Russian conflict. Two groups operating in Ukraine – the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Legion of Freedom of Russia – have claimed responsibility.
The groups were formed during the all-out invasion of Russia and attracted Russian volunteer fighters who wanted to fight alongside Ukraine against their own country and overthrow President Vladimir Putin.
Mark Galeotti, head of London-based consultancy Mayak Intelligence and author of several books on the Russian military, said the two groups were made up of anti-Kremlin Russians ranging from liberals and anarchists to neo-Nazis.
“They hope that they can contribute a little to overthrowing the Putin regime. But at the same time we have to be clear that these are not independent forces… They are controlled by the Ukrainian military intelligence service,” he said.
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak reiterated Kiev’s position that it had nothing to do with the operation.
The United States says it does not “enable or encourage” Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, but that it is up to Kiev to decide how to conduct military operations.
A view shows damaged buildings in an alleged settlement in the Belgorod region after anti-terrorist measures imposed over a cross-border incursion from Ukraine were lifted, in this handout picture released May 23, 2023. Governor of Russia’s Belgorod Region Vyacheslav Gladkov by telegram/handout via Portal
There have been several similar incursions into Russia in recent months, and while this week was the largest attack known to date, it is still tiny compared to front-line fighting.
Echoes of 2014?
Alexei Baranovsky, a spokesman for the political wing of the Legion of Freedom of Russia, told Portal in Kyiv that he could not disclose the number of troops involved in the operation, but that the Legion had four battalions in all.
Baranovsky denied that there had been heavy casualties and he dismissed Russian reports of large casualties as disinformation.
He said the unit was part of Ukraine’s International Legion and thus part of its armed forces, but denied the raid was coordinated with Ukrainian authorities.
“These are the first steps towards the main goal of overthrowing Putin’s regime by force of arms. There are no other alternatives,” he said.
Galeotti said the incursion looked like a “shaping operation” of Ukraine’s battlefield ahead of Kiev’s planned counteroffensive.
“…This is really a chance to do two things. First, to unsettle the Russians and make them afraid of possible uprisings among their own people. And second, to force the Russians to disperse their troops,” he said.
Melvin noted that the operation also served to boost morale in Ukraine.
Kiev officials have mimicked the Kremlin’s rhetoric surrounding Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, when it initially denied the troops involved were Russian.
Podolyak blamed the Belgorod incursion on “underground guerrilla groups” composed of Russian citizens, saying, “As you know, tanks are sold in every Russian military store.”
The remark appeared to mirror Putin’s 2014 response when asked about the presence of men in Russian military uniforms without insignia in Crimea: “You can go to a store and buy any type of uniform.”
On social media, Ukrainians referred to the so-called “Belgorod People’s Republic” – a reference to events in eastern Ukraine in 2014, when Russian-backed militias in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions proclaimed “people’s republics”.
Ukrainians also circulated a video of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivering his famous “I am here” video address in Kyiv at the start of the February 2022 invasion. But instead of the presidential office in Kiev, the welcome sign for the city of Belgorod was visible in the background.
Additional reporting by Max Hunder in Kiev and Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska in Warsaw; Edited by Mike Collett-White and Mark Heinrich
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