Ukraine war of attrition or decisive attack The scenarios and

Ukraine, war of attrition or decisive attack? The scenarios and Putin’s plan to overcome the blockade

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war Attrition, stalemate or calm before the storm? On the 24th day of the war, the Russia it seems to be further back than one would expect. No key cities were conquered, Kyiv is still a long way off and the casualties among the military of Putin They are huge. Western intelligence in recent days, perhaps due to the huge reaction from the Ukrainian army, has detected a shift in strategy that has been more persistent than what the generals in Moscow had foreseen. Zelensky He tried to reach the tsar and talked about serious peace talks. But a “rivet” has come out of the Kremlin that explains how the apparent difficulty could actually be part of the plan. And in Kyiv, an unprecedented raid is feared in the next few hours.

Ukraine, Russian General Andrei Mordvichev killed: fifth in 24 days of war

Waiting to wear down the enemy

The British 007 took stock of the war’s unfolding and chronicled the shift in strategy by the Russians, who may have opted for a “war of attrition”. But what does that mean? According to London intelligence, this decision will “result in the indiscriminate use of bombing, which will increase civilian casualties, the devastation of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and the humanitarian crisis.”

The goal is to slowly extinguish the fire of resistance. For weeks, Russia has been targeting cargo ships in the Black Sea that have to transport supplies for the Ukrainian army and civilians. The goal is to cut off the supplies, which are obviously vital to continue to violently repel the enemy, and lower morale. In this sense, the announcement of the use of hypersonic missiles, another of Moscow’s advanced weapons, also serves to undermine the will of Ukrainians, who must feel encircled and hopeless. However, at the moment this is not the case.

The point of the pentagon

According to US defense officials, the Russian advance remains “largely stalled.” The Pentagon reports that the capture of Kyiv is still at sea. In addition, in the last few hours, Ukrainian forces have successfully repelled an attempted Russian attack on the capital. Putin’s army remains 30 kilometers from Kyiv, still firmly under resistance control. Mariupol and Chernihiv are “isolated” but still in Ukrainian hands. No progress was reported in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Despite the 1,080 missiles Russia has deployed from February 24 to date, control of the airspace remains “contentious”.

The calm before the storm?

As mentioned, Russia may have decided to slow down to weaken resistance over time. But in fact, other Western sources suggest that the apparent standoff may be the prelude to an attack of unprecedented proportions. A kind of calm before the storm. Tonight, for the first time, no significant bombings were reported. The reason will be clarified soon. It could be the sign that negotiations between states are going under the radar, or, on a more disturbing view, the preparations for an unprecedented crackdown. Russia has no interest in prolonging the war and needs a major military conquest to come to the negotiating table in a stronger position and win the deal on its side.

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