Russia still has the upper hand. This is a capital advantage. According to British intelligence, Russian attack helicopters are extremely effective. They take off from the Berdyansk rear base on the Azov Sea and fire from afar. Long-range missiles that inflicted great damage on the Ukrainian columns.
In theory, the attack of the Ukrainian tanks should be protected by anti-aircraft batteries. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been saying for months: “We don’t have enough equipment.”
And if the Russians keep bombing big cities like Kiev, it’s also to force Ukraine to keep those defenses off the front lines.
At the same time, the counteroffensive encountered the fortifications created by the Moscow troops: dragon’s teeth, anti-tank concrete blocks, trenches, minefields … It was difficult to advance without heavy human losses.
In fifteen days, the Ukrainian army has retaken just 100 square kilometers and, according to the Estonian services, is on the verge of a break of at least several days to reorganize.
“The Russians have learned from their difficulties”
The counter-offensive in Ukraine is now in its third week. When the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense speaks of “tactical successes” in southern Donbass, it is difficult to deny it: the Ukrainian army encountered Russian air superiority and firepower.
For General Jerome Pellistrandi, Director of the Revue Défense Nationale: “For several weeks, even months, the Russians have been fortifying the entire southern zone, which they want to protect to some extent, and therefore the problem for the Ukrainians is to break through the various lines of defense Russians, to about to advance to the Sea of Azov. »
“The Russians, too, have learned from their difficulties, from their mistakes. You are now on the defensive. They no longer have the initiative, but we are seeing increased efficiency in the Russian land forces and so we can clearly see that this offensive is difficult, it is of very high intensity. The fights are tough. This means there are casualties on both sides; The material loss is still the least serious, but above all the loss of human life, including on the Ukrainian side,” he explains.
General Jérôme Pellistrandi: “Increased efficiency of Russian ground forces”
“The whole difficulty for Ukrainians will be to hold out over time”
“We actually need to open up gaps in this defense system made up of those famous concrete bags called ‘Dragon’s Teeth’, trenches. In between are minefields and all these areas are under fire from Russian artillery. This means that you must first break through these defenses before you can advance. And that is why armored vehicles are the most vulnerable right now, and it is true that for several weeks the Ukrainians have lost several armored vehicles supplied by the West,” emphasizes General Jerome Pellistrandi.
“The whole difficulty for the Ukrainians will be to hold out in the long term and to have enough forces to renew those who are on the front lines. And then, of course, having enough ammo to keep the fire going. This is also one of the reasons why EU Commissioner Thierry Breton asked to speed up the delivery of large-caliber ammunition to Ukraine,” concludes the director of the RDN.
General Jérôme Pellistrandi: “Open gaps in this defense system”
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